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fxus63 kunr 251700 

Area forecast discussion for western South Dakota and northeastern Wyoming
National Weather Service Rapid City South Dakota
1100 am MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Short term...(today through Sunday night)
issued at 234 am MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

08z surface analysis had low over southern ab with trough/warm
front into western NE and cold front into Idaho. 2-3mb/3hr pressure
falls noted along warm front, which was supporting gusty southerly
winds over northeast Wyoming into far northwest South Dakota. Latest water
vapour loop had weak ridge over the northern plains and trough
kissing the West Coast. This feature will be the main concern in
the short term.

Today, upper ridge shifts east as upper trough moves into The
Rockies. Thermal ridge peaks over the County Warning Area today as warm front moves
east of cwa, but won't be fully realized given upstream mid/high
cloud cover. Ascent ahead of trough may bring some precipitation
to the far western reaches of the County Warning Area late with a few showers
possible over the Black Hills given steep lapse rates.
Temperatures will be near guidance.

Tonight through Sunday morning, cold front drops into the County Warning Area as
surface low travels across south central Canada. Cold front links up
with secondary low over eastern Wyoming. Well-defined 850-700mb
frontogenesis foreseen with band of lift supporting a 3-6 hour
period of -ra moving across the County Warning Area through Sunday morning. Thermal
profiles suggest -sn possible over northeast Wyoming and the higher
elevations of the Black Hills, but accumulations will be minor. Kept
categorical pops going just behind cold front given model

Sunday afternoon and night, transient upper ridge moves into the
northern plains with surface high building into the Dakotas. Return
flow starts up rather quickly Sunday night ahead of next upper
trough entering the West Coast. Temperatures will be near guidance.

Long term...(monday through friday)
issued at 234 am MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Unsettled progressive flow is expected next week with a series of
upper troughs moving through the County Warning Area. First system moves through
Monday night and Tuesday with mainly -ra, but some -sn possible
over the higher elevations. Next main system rolls in next Friday.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z sunday)
issued at 1057 am MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

VFR conditions expected through this afternoon. Gusty southerly
winds expected on the South Dakota plains today. A cold front will bring
deteriorating conditions tonight with areas of MVFR conditions in
rain developing this evening over nern Wyoming into the blkhls, then
spreading ewd onto the South Dakota plains late tonight. Local IFR conditions
possible later tonight across parts of nern Wyoming into the blkhls as
rain mixes with or changes to snow.


Fire weather...
issued at 234 am MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Drier and warmer weather is expected today. Gusty southerly winds
at times with minimum relative humidities dipping to around 20
percent are expected east of the Black Hills. Very high grassland
fire danger is expected for these areas.


Unr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


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