Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kunr 230332
Area forecast discussion for western South Dakota and northeastern Wyoming
National Weather Service Rapid City South Dakota
932 PM MDT Mon may 22 2017
Discussion...(this evening through monday)
issued at 209 PM MDT Mon may 22 2017
Latest water vapor imagery shows a strong upper low over the
northern plains with a ridge of high pressure just off the West
Coast. At the surface, a cold front extends through northern
Nebraska from a low centered over southern Minnesota. On the
radar, several convective showers and isolated thunderstorms have
developed across the forecast area. These showers are producing
quick bouts of rain and gusty winds.
Showers and storms will end late this evening as the shortwave exits
the area. Clouds will gradually decrease overnight, with low
temperatures dropping into the mid 30s to mid 40s.
On Tuesday, shortwave ridging will bring mainly dry conditions with
the exception of a few lingering showers early over south central
South Dakota. Generally, temperatures will be a little warmer with
highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Gusty northerly winds will
Return flow will set-up on Wednesday as the surface high moves off
to the east, with southerly winds and much warmer temperatures.
Early Thursday, a cold front will push through the forecast area
switching winds around to the northwest and cooling temperatures a
little. Friday through Sunday will be a little cooler than normal as
the next upper trough moves slowly through the northern Continental U.S. From
an upper low over southern Canada. This upper trough will create
unsettled conditions with a daily chance of precipitation and gusty
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 931 PM MDT Mon may 22 2017
VFR conditions expected through Tuesday.