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fxus63 kunr 121742 

Area forecast discussion for western South Dakota and northeastern Wyoming
National Weather Service Rapid City South Dakota
1042 am MST Tue Dec 12 2017

Discussion...(today through monday)
issued at 207 am MST Tue Dec 12 2017

Northwest flow continues over the northern plains,
with a persistent upper ridge to the west and trough to the east. A
band of low clouds and a warm front stretch from north to south
across the central/eastern Dakotas. Under mostly clear skies, the
County Warning Area has light westerly surface winds and temperatures in the 20s.

Warm air advection and sunny skies will allow temperatures to warm
into the 50s and lower 60s again today. Winds will be fairly light,
around 5 to 15 mph.

Another fast-moving shortwave will push through the northern plains
tonight. The European model (ecmwf) and GFS are in better agreement now on the track,
timing, and intensity of this system, which looks very similar to
the one Sunday night/Monday morning. Consmos is showing advisory
criteria winds for much of the western South Dakota plains, but NAM and GFS
forecast soundings are showing 50+ kt winds mixing down again,
especially just east of the Black Hills. This is supported by
another 5-6 mb pressure difference over the hills with 40-50 kt
boundary layer winds. The strongest winds are expected to be late
tonight into Wednesday morning with the strongest cold air advection and pressure
rises. Will put out a high wind watch for the areas just east of the
Black Hills for now. Highs Wednesday will cool to the 40s.

Yet another shortwave will cross the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air and gusty
winds. Winds on Thursday don't look quite as strong as
tonight/wednesday; however, more moisture associated with this
system will bring a chance for some light snow. Highs Thursday will
be mainly in the 30s.

The upper ridge axis will shift over the region Friday, as a
stronger wave moves over the Pacific northwest. Highs Friday will
warm back into the 50s, but chances for precip will increase Friday
night into Saturday as the wave crosses The Rockies. Highs this
weekend look to be in the upper 30s to upper 40s.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z wednesday)
issued at 1041 am MST Tue Dec 12 2017

Areas of MVFR visibility in smoke will continue along and near the
southeastern and eastern slopes of the Black Hills until the wind
becomes northwesterly this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected through tonight. Strong and gusty west to northwest
winds will develop over western South Dakota late this evening
and will continue into Wednesday morning.


Fire weather...
issued at 1041 am MST Tue Dec 12 2017

A strong cold front will move through the region tonight,
bringing strong and gusty northwesterly winds.

Another warm and dry day is expected today, with minimum relative
humidity values around 18 to 30 percent. Breezy westerly winds are
expected at many locations this afternoon with gusts of 20 to 25


Unr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...high wind watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for



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