Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
828 am MST Wed Oct 26 2016
Synopsis...strong high pressure will result in dry and warm
conditions the remainder of the week, with well above normal
daytime temperatures for late October.
Discussion...an anomalously strong ridge for late October continues
to dominate our weather pattern. The ridge is currently centered to
our south across Sonora with the ridge axis extending northward into
Arizona. This will result in continued mostly clear skies with well
above normal temperatures. The warmest temperatures are expected on
Thursday as the ridge axis shifts just east of the region resulting
in a bit more southerly flow. Many areas will see their daily record
highs broken on Thursday and with any high temperature at or above
95 degrees in Tucson, it will be the latest day of such occurrence.
The ridge will remain close enough to our region to remain in
control of our weather through the weekend with west to southwest
flow aloft as some weak shortwaves pass to our north. These will
have little impact on our sensible weather other than some mid and
high clouds from time to time. Daytime temperatures will nudge down
a few degrees as well but still remain about 10 degrees above normal
this weekend. The southern branch of the jet stream could become a
little bit more active next week, which will lower heights enough to
bring temperatures down to within a few degrees above normal. Will
maintain the dry forecast through the forecast period.
Aviation...valid through 27/18z.
Mostly clear skies through the forecast period. Normal diurnal
surface wind trends generally less than 12 kts through 27/12z, then
Ely-southeasterly winds 10-15 kts with a few higher gusts through in normally
prone mountain gap areas. Aviation discussion not updated for taf
Fire weather...high pressure will bring a drying trend and above
normal daytime highs through the coming weekend. 20-foot winds
will be terrain driven generally less than 15 mph.
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