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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
905 PM MST sun Jul 24 2016

Synopsis...adequate moisture will provide scattered mainly
afternoon and evening thunderstorms into next weekend. Daytime
temperatures will generally trend a few degrees above normal.


Discussion...WV and infrared imagery shows a complex of storms
over the conjunction of Southeast Arizona, southwest New Mexico and
northern Mexico that continues to move west. At 0322z, the Bisbee-
Douglas Airport reported a brief wind gust of 66 mph. So far, we
have not received any reports of wind damage as this occurred. That
said, just recently issued a significant weather advisory for strong
and gusty winds of 50 to 55 mph possible over southern parts of
Cochise County through 930 PM MST.

I already updated the forecast earlier this evening to reflect
ongoing satellite and radar trends and adjusted pops higher across
southern Cochise County and into parts of Santa Cruz County through
the remainder of this evening and after midnight.

As of 04z (9 PM mst), temperatures generally ranged from the upper
70s to the mid 90s, with the Tucson International Airport reporting
a temp of 96 degs after reaching an afternoon high temperature of
103 degs, which was 5 degs above normal for this date. These
readings seem to be on track with the inherited overnight low
temperature forecast for the most part, so no changes are planned at
this time but will continue to monitor and will make changes as
needed, especially for areas like Douglas where the showers cooled
them down significantly.

See previous discussion below for details beyond tonight.


Aviation...valid through 26/06z.
From Tucson westward few-sct clouds at 8-12k feet mean sea level with isolated
rain showers/thunderstorms and rain possible overnight. For areas from Nogales to Douglas
expect brief wind gusts to around 40-45 kts and MVFR conditions as a
storm complex makes its way across southern Cochise County and Santa
Cruz County the remainder of this evening and into the early morning
hours before slowly diminishing thereafter. Mainly light and terrain
driven winds will occur overnight, becoming westerly/northwesterly at around 10
kts late Monday morning. Isolated to scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain will occur
again Monday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for taf


Fire weather...scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms will occur into next weekend. Outside of gusty
thunderstorm outflow winds, 20-foot winds will generally be terrain
driven and less than 15 mph. The exception will be the Gila River
valley, where northwesterly winds around 20 mph with higher gusts
are possible during the afternoon hours through midweek.


Previous discussion...a slight chance of showers/tstms will exists area-
wide late tonight into Monday morning. The 24/12z GFS/ECMWF/CMC were
similar with depicting a quasi-stationary upper high centered over
southern Utah/northern Arizona Tuesday into next weekend. These
solutions depict some drying of significance thur-Fri across
northern/central Arizona. However, there appears to be only very
minor daily changes in moisture content across Southeast Arizona.
Thus, the scenario of scattered afternoon/evening showers/tstms, and
a slight chance of late night/early morning showers/tstms will
suffice Tuesday through next Sunday.

High temps during this forecast period will trend close to seasonal
normals, or a few degs above normal depending upon location.


Twc watches/warnings/advisories...none.



previous discussion...Francis
aviation/fire weather...French

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