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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
306 am MST Sat Jul 23 2016

Synopsis...isolated to scattered thunderstorms will occur mainly
east to south of Tucson today. An increase in deeper moisture
will result in an upswing in thunderstorm activity Sunday into next
week. Expect well above normal temperatures again today followed
by a moderation in daytime temperatures next week.


Discussion...a large thunderstorm complex over northern Mexico
continued to decay early this morning, with debris cloudiness across
much of Southeast Arizona. Latest hrrr solution did not appear to
be handling the current trends very well, so will not place much
merit on what the model has for later today in terms of
the thunderstorm potential. That said, the GFS and gefs continued to
advertise a better flow pattern that will help bring deeper moisture
needed for thunderstorms northward this coming week. This moisture
increase will evolve as the upper high becomes more consolidated
over north-central nm and The Four Corners region in the next day or
so. The pattern then shifts with the upper high amplifying and
becoming centered over southern Nevada. This pattern shift will
bring a more North-East to easterly steering flow to the area. Thus,
helping steer thunderstorms developing in the higher terrain of the
rim and White Mountains southwest in the lower deserts. Otherwise,
daytime temperatures will remain several degrees above normal today,
then moderate some as moisture and subsequently thunderstorm coverage


Aviation...valid through 24/12z.
Few-sct clouds at 12-15k ft agl and sct-bkn clouds aoa 20k ft agl
thru 23/17z. Aft 23/17z...sct clouds at 8-12k ft agl and sct-bkn
clouds aoa 15k ft agl. Isold-sct -tsra/-shra mainly east to south
of ktus this afternoon/evening. Brief wind gusts to around 40 kts
and MVFR conditions with the stronger thunderstorms and rain. Aviation discussion not
updated for taf amendments.


Fire weather...isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly east to
south of Tucson today. Greater coverage of thunderstorms will then
occur starting Sunday and continue into next weekend. Outside of
gusty thunderstorm outflow winds, 20-foot winds will generally be
terrain driven and less than 15 mph.


Twc watches/warnings/advisories...none.



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