Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
350 am MST Fri Oct 28 2016
Synopsis...strong high pressure will result in dry conditions with
well above normal daytime temperatures through the weekend. A trough
through western states should bring a moderate cooling trend next
week, with temperatures falling closer to seasonal averages by the
middle of the week.
Discussion...the unseasonably strong upper high that brought record
high temperatures to the area on Thursday was centered over
Chihuahua mx this morning. Record to near records high once again
today under plenty of mainly high level cloud cover. Some of this
high level moisture was pulled out Seymour and out ahead of upper
level low approaching central California.
Southwest flow aloft will continue into early next week with daytime
temperatures gradually cooling.
Next shot of precipitation will be around next Wednesday as an upper
level trof over the state increases moisture across the area. Made
some slight adjustments upward in pops to match surrounding offices.
Aviation...valid through 29/00z.
VFR with broken-overcast cirrus level clouds through the period and few-scattered
clouds at 8-12k ft agl after 28/17z. Surface wind generally Ely/sely
at 7-14 knots. Aviation discussion not updated for taf amendments.
Fire weather...dry conditions will prevail into early next week.
Expect occasionally gusty east to southeast winds through this
evening. 20-foot winds will then be terrain driven generally 15 mph
or less into the middle to latter part of next week. A low pressure
system will begin to move into the Desert Southwest, bringing a
chance of showers mainly to the White Mountains late Tuesday into
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