Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

000 
FXUS65 KTWC 221601
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
901 AM MST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Daytime temperatures still remain on the chilly side 
tonight with another cold night tonight. Otherwise, dry 
conditions with a warming trend most of the week. A weather system
passing north of the area will then bring cooler air and gusty 
winds late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The Freeze Warning worked out pretty much as 
advertised with a low of 30 degrees in Tucson. Very cold conditions 
for eastern areas with Douglas getting down to 15 degrees which is 
a record low and the coldest of the winter. Latest IR satellite 
imagery shows considerable cirroform cloudiness streaming from west 
to east across the forecast area which will result in mostly cloudy 
conditions with some filtered sunshine today. Looking at the 12Z 
KTWC sounding, there has been quite a bit of warming in the past 24 
hours mainly above 800mb but the boundary layer remains cool and  
will still struggle to warm today so highs will remain about 5 
degrees below normal. Another cold night tonight with skies 
clearing and lows once again near freezing in the deserts. 

Warming conditions Tuesday through Thursday as ridging nudges in 
from the north and west. Another trough will slide to our north 
across the Great Basin into the Central Rockies Thursday into 
Friday. This may result in a few breezes for us but the biggest 
sensible weather impact will be about a 10 degree temperature drop 
on Friday to seasonable levels. Remaining dry and turning warmer 
again this weekend. 

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 23/18Z.
SCT-BKN cirrus mainly above 20k ft AGL into this evening. Clouds 
will decrease from west to east early Tuesday morning. Surface wind 
ELY/NELY at less than 12 kts through the period. Aviation discussion 
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will prevail over the next 
week. Light, easterly 20-ft winds occur through mid-week, though 
speeds should increase to around 15 mph Wednesday afternoon. 
Elevated westerly to southwesterly winds may return late in the work 
week.

&&

.CLIMATE...Based on temperatures to date and the 7 day forecast, 
it looks like Tucson is headed for top 5 warmest January on 
record. This would be the fourth straight month with top 5 warmest
status. When will it end?!

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations