Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 ktwc 241050
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
350 am MST Mon Apr 24 2017
Synopsis...continued dry conditions with warmer than normal
daytime temperatures and gusty afternoon winds through Wednesday. A
few showers may occur across the White Mountains Thursday. A
stronger storm system may then bring strong gusty winds Friday into
Saturday, as well as a slight chance of showers as far west as
Discussion...main weather concern for most of the week will be
strong gusty afternoon winds which will bring fire weather concerns
today and Tuesday and then later in the week. See fire weather
section below for further details.
After a rather toasty Sunday highs this afternoon will be 3-7
degrees cooler across most of the area.
The storm system that brings the gusty winds to the area today and
tomorrow will also bring a slight chance of showers to the White
Mountains on Tuesday along with cooler high temperatures. MOS and
thickness numbers are cooler on Tuesday versus previous runs, so
went ahead lowered highs a few degrees.
Dry west-northwest flow aloft Wednesday and Thursday with highs on Thursday
around 5 degrees warmer than Tuesday.
A stronger/colder upper level trof will settle in over the state on
Friday and Saturday. This system will bring rather strong winds to
the area on Friday, likely in advisory criteria area wide. This
system will also bring a chance of showers from Tucson east Friday
night into Saturday along with much cooler high temperatures.
Aviation...valid through 25/12z.
Expect sky clear to scattered clouds above 20k ft above ground level thru pd. Terrain driven
sfc winds less than 10 kts this am bcmg southwesterly 12-25k kts after 16z
with ocnl gusts to 35 kts btwn 18z-23z. Aviation discussion not
updated for taf amendments.
Fire weather...a red flag warning is in effect from 11 am to 7 PM
MST today for the sern half of fire weather zone 151 and for most of
fire weather zone 152. The combination of strong and gusty southwest
winds, relative humidity in the single digits to lower teens, and a
high fire danger will create critical fire weather conditions.
A Fire Weather Watch is in effect from late Tuesday morning through
Tuesday evening for the sern half of fire weather zone 152. The
combination of strong and gusty winds, low relative humidity and a
high fire danger may create critical fire weather conditions.
Critical fire weather conditions may also return Friday to a fairly
large portion of Southeast Arizona. Field crews are strongly
encouraged to monitor subsequent forecasts for additional Fire
Weather Watch and/or red flag warning issuances.
Otherwise, a few showers may occur across the White Mountains
Thursday. There is a chance of showers across the White Mountains
Friday, then a slight chance of showers as far west as Tucson Friday
night into Saturday. Dry conditions are expected to occur area-wide
Saturday night into next Sunday.
red flag warning from 11 am to 7 PM MST today for azz151-152.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening