Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 ktsa 211028
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
528 am CDT Thu Mar 21 2019
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
VFR taf elements will prevail at all sites through the entire
Previous discussion... /issued 306 am CDT Thu Mar 21 2019/
another nice/mild afternoon on tap with temperatures running near
normal under mostly sunny skies. Light northwest winds expected as
weak high pressure at the surface moves into the region. Warming trend
forecast on Friday as upper ridge briefly builds into Southern Plains
ahead of next storm system developing over the Desert Southwest.
Upper wave will move out of The Four Corners region Friday, lifting
northeast into the Central Plains on Saturday. In response, scattered
showers with a few isolated thunderstorms will spread into eastern
Oklahoma late Friday night into Saturday morning.
Initial wave will lift north Saturday night with a brief lull in
precipitation chances, although a few scattered showers will remain
possible. As stronger zonal flow aloft develops, secondary upper
wave/speed Max will approach with a continued chance for scattered
showers/thunderstorms on Sunday as Pacific front stalls over the
area in advance of main cold front. Instability may be sufficient
for a few stronger thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon/evening. Still
some model timing differences with GFS more progressive in shifting
heavier precip east by this time.
Cooler weather expected Mon/Tue of next week before temperatures
warm back to more seasonable levels by mid week as southerly winds