Scientific Forecaster Discussion
000 FXUS64 KTSA 300447 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1147 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. Thunderstorms have shifted east of northwest Arkansas late this evening with cold front. Additional showers will be possible behind departing system late tonight into the day Thursday across far NE OK/NW AR. MVFR conditions will be likely across these same areas through mid/late afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 947 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/ DISCUSSION... Instability has remained somewhat limited through the evening, and as such, organized sustained updrafts have been hard to come by. Over the past hour, scattered convection has developed ahead of the cold front, which as of 930 PM had pushed a little east of I49. Severe weather threat is very limited with this activity as it shifts east of the forecast area over the next hour or so. Most of the Tornado Watch was cleared earlier, and expect last remaining counties to be removed by 11PM. Some wrap around showers associated with upper low moving across eastern KS could affect parts of northeast OK later tonight, with breezy W-SW winds persisting through the night in many areas. Updated products have already been sent. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 630 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/ AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. MVFR ceilings will develop late tonight and early Thursday and will persist through the day Thursday. A few patches of light rain may occur Thursday in northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, but the chances are too low at any one site to include in the TAF. West winds will occasionally gust over 20 knots during the day Thursday. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 355 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/ DISCUSSION... Surface low near the Oklahoma/Kansas border southwest of Wichita will move northeast overnight. Weak dryline/cold front is moving across northeast Oklahoma at this time, and the potential still exists for a few strong to severe storms east of this boundary over the next few hours. However, the greatest coverage of severe storms will likely be east of our forecast area. Thursday will be a cloudy, raw day, with the possibility of a few showers across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Temperatures will struggle to warm much at all during the day, with some places likely not even reaching 50 degrees. A rapid warmup begins Friday and continues Saturday ahead of the next storm system that will result in another round of showers and thunderstorms late Saturday into Monday. This system will take a southerly track, so the severe weather risk in our area will be quite low. Locally heavy rain will be possible however. Another upper system will follow quickly on the heels of this one Tuesday and Wednesday. Moisture return will be limited, but the strength of the system dictates at least a mention of showers and thunderstorms around Tuesday night of next week. Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days, with the much colder NAM and ECMWF MOS numbers preferred for high temperatures Thursday. && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None.