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000 
FXUS64 KTSA 300447
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1147 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Thunderstorms have shifted east of northwest Arkansas late this 
evening with cold front. Additional showers will be possible 
behind departing system late tonight into the day Thursday across 
far NE OK/NW AR. MVFR conditions will be likely across these same 
areas through mid/late afternoon.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 947 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/ 

DISCUSSION...
Instability has remained somewhat limited through the evening, 
and as such, organized sustained updrafts have been hard to come 
by. Over the past hour, scattered convection has developed ahead 
of the cold front, which as of 930 PM had pushed a little east of 
I49. Severe weather threat is very limited with this activity as 
it shifts east of the forecast area over the next hour or so. Most
of the Tornado Watch was cleared earlier, and expect last 
remaining counties to be removed by 11PM. Some wrap around showers
associated with upper low moving across eastern KS could affect 
parts of northeast OK later tonight, with breezy W-SW winds 
persisting through the night in many areas. Updated products have 
already been sent.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 630 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/ 

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR ceilings will develop late tonight and early Thursday and
will persist through the day Thursday. A few patches of light 
rain may occur Thursday in northeast Oklahoma and northwest 
Arkansas, but the chances are too low at any one site to include 
in the TAF. West winds will occasionally gust over 20 knots during
the day Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 355 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/ 

DISCUSSION...

Surface low near the Oklahoma/Kansas border southwest of Wichita
will move northeast overnight. Weak dryline/cold front is moving
across northeast Oklahoma at this time, and the potential still
exists for a few strong to severe storms east of this boundary
over the next few hours. However, the greatest coverage of severe
storms will likely be east of our forecast area.

Thursday will be a cloudy, raw day, with the possibility of a few
showers across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Temperatures will struggle to warm much at all during the day,
with some places likely not even reaching 50 degrees.

A rapid warmup begins Friday and continues Saturday ahead of the
next storm system that will result in another round of showers and
thunderstorms late Saturday into Monday. This system will take a
southerly track, so the severe weather risk in our area will be
quite low. Locally heavy rain will be possible however.

Another upper system will follow quickly on the heels of this one
Tuesday and Wednesday. Moisture return will be limited, but the
strength of the system dictates at least a mention of showers and
thunderstorms around Tuesday night of next week.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days, with
the much colder NAM and ECMWF MOS numbers preferred for high
temperatures Thursday.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.

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