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fxus64 ktsa 172311 
afdtsa

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
511 PM CST sun Dec 17 2017

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Widespread low stratus deck expected to persist into Monday
morning before finally mixing out in the 15z-18z time frame. Parts
of northeast OK have at least temporarily improved to MVFR
ceilings, however flight conditions should again worsen through
the evening with IFR prevailing at all locations. Should any
clearing in low cloud deck take place tonight, those areas would
likely see development of dense fog with LIFR conditions.




&&

Previous discussion... /issued 352 PM CST sun Dec 17 2017/

Discussion...
latest visible satellite imagery shows the back edge of the low
clouds is still across far western Oklahoma, and we are not
expecting clearing before morning. If the low clouds hang around,
low temperatures should stay up in the 40s, similar to current
dewpoint observations. The lightest rain amounts fell across far
northeast Oklahoma last night, but there were more generous
accumulations of over a half inch across southeast Oklahoma and
portions of western Arkansas, and this will alleviate the long
term drought conditions.

West winds return to the area on Monday, which will scatter out
the clouds, before the next upper level low pressure system
arrives on Tuesday. Clouds will be on the increase by Tuesday with
another decent chance at some rain showers, mainly south and east.
There could even be some isolated thunder across far southeast
Oklahoma late Tuesday night. If the mid week rain develops, it
will be most welcome across southeast Oklahoma and western
Arkansas.

Wednesday and Thursday look quite mild with highs well into the
60s ahead of the first Arctic front, which is still expected to
arrive late Thursday. We have added some low chances for rain
Thursday night and Friday. The cold air will be in place Friday
and it will be cold and dry Saturday. There still appears to be a
signal for light snow or flurries developing on Christmas eve, but
the better chance is to the north and west.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 42 62 47 64 / 0 0 10 10
fsm 44 64 47 65 / 0 0 20 30
mlc 42 63 50 64 / 0 0 20 40
bvo 40 61 42 63 / 0 0 0 10
fyv 42 61 45 64 / 0 0 10 20
byv 41 60 47 61 / 0 0 10 10
mko 41 63 47 64 / 0 0 10 20
Mio 40 59 45 63 / 0 0 10 10
f10 41 63 48 64 / 0 0 10 20
hhw 43 62 51 62 / 0 0 30 70

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

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