Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 ktsa 232342
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
642 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
A few scattered showers will remain possible this evening across
eastern Oklahoma behind front in association with approaching
weak upper wave. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through
the forecast period.
Previous discussion... /issued 301 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/
front continues to push southward this afternoon with showers and
thunderstorms developing along, and behind, the front. Main
instability axis early this afternoon resides across far eastern
Oklahoma and much of Arkansas, but with weak overall flow main
hazard will be strong winds with some of the stronger storm
clusters. Most vigorous convection is impacting mainly portions of
northwest Arkansas and SW Missouri early this afternoon with several
reports of strong winds in SW Missouri and north-central Arkansas.
This line of convection may start back-building into Oklahoma
over the next several hours, thus will Bode watching given
instability axis positioned over the area. Front is expected to
reach the Red River valley by this evening, continuing to move
slowly southward overnight. Storms chances will decrease from
north to south this afternoon with main line of storms aligned
along the front and some scattered Post-frontal showers. There is
some indication that storms may invigorate a bit overnight across
southern Oklahoma overnight, but this activity should remain sub-
The weekend looks quite pleasant with cooler and drier air filtering
in behind the front. Below normal high temperatures expected both
Saturday and Sunday with highs staying in the low to mid 80s. A
gradual warming trend will take place beginning early next week as
upper level ridging begins to build back over the central conus.
While a few Summer-type afternoon storms can't be ruled out,
overall convective chances look rather slim until late next week
when the next front approaches the plains.