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fxus64 ktsa 230406 
afdtsa

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1106 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Discussion...

The 06z taf discussion is included below.

&&

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
VFR conditions will prevail with high pressure building into the
region. Cigs will clear out by morning with a small chance of
light MVFR fog at kfyv around daybreak. Should be a picture
perfect day to fly across east OK/northwest Arkansas on Sunday.

Lacy

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 856 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/

Discussion...
potential for some patchy drizzle will exist over the
next few hours across portions of eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas. Otherwise...the cloud cover is expected
to slowly exit much of the area overnight from the west
to the east. Current forecast is on track with only some
minor adjustments.

Previous discussion... /issued 620 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/

Discussion...

The 00z taf discussion is included below.

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
MVFR conditions across southeast OK into northwest Arkansas will gradually trend
toward VFR thru the evening as high pressure and drier air work
their way into the region from the north. Cigs are already VFR
across NE OK. Eventually all cigs should clear out by morning.
There is a chance for some light MVFR fog at fyv around daybreak,
otherwise it should be a picture perfect day to fly a plane across
east OK and northwest Arkansas on Sunday.

Lacy

Previous discussion... /issued 353 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/

Discussion...
sfc high settles over the region tonight through Sunday with skies
eventually clearing and warmer temps expected by Sun afternoon.
Lows Sunday night will drop into the mid 30s for the colder valley
locations and patchy frost is not out of the question.

Breezy and warmer conditions prevail on Monday with the next cold
front pushing into NE OK by Tuesday afternoon. Sfc wave is
forecast to develop over the Texas Panhandle by tues evening and
track along the frontal zone into southeast OK by sunrise Wednesday.
Storm development by late tues evening is likely to be limited by
marginal sfc moisture return and sizeable inhibition. While an
isolated storm is possible tues evening, more widespread storm
coverage is likely along the frontal zone and in advance of the
sfc wave with widespread convection tues night into early Wed
morning. Severe weather and locally heavy rain potential will
exist with any storms from late tues afternoon through tues night.

The cold front will clear the forecast area early Wednesday and
thereafter uncertainty increases markedly regarding the evolution
of this frontal boundary. Sharp swings in the European model (ecmwf) operational
solution along with wide spreads noted in its corresponding
ensemble data suggest the late week forecast is far from being
determined. That said, the pattern aloft will become increasing
active across the Southern Plains from late week through next
weekend. While the warm sector placement remains uncertain, the
idea of significant severe weather remains plausible.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 40 70 47 76 / 10 0 0 0
fsm 44 72 45 78 / 10 0 0 0
mlc 43 71 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
bvo 38 70 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
fyv 38 68 35 73 / 10 0 0 0
byv 40 67 40 73 / 10 0 0 0
mko 41 70 44 76 / 10 0 0 0
Mio 40 70 45 74 / 10 0 0 0
f10 42 69 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
hhw 44 71 45 76 / 10 0 0 0

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

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