Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 ktsa 201723
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1123 am CST Sat Jan 20 2018
Low clouds are scattering out late this morning in most areas,
supporting the warmer forecast high temps later today. The strong
gusty south winds will raise fire weather concerns, though this
will be limited by higher dewpoints/humidity. Will monitor trends
and issue an update if necessary. See the discussion below for 18z
aviation forecast concerns.
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
MVFR cigs scattering out this afternoon at the taf sites. MVFR
cigs return this evening as low level moisture return continues
ahead of next storm system. Kmlc did see a brief IFR cig, so a
tempo group was inserted into the forecast there. Potential for
showers/storms will be just beyond the scope of this forecast.
Strong and gusty south winds will persist, aside from a break near
or just after sunset this evening.
Previous discussion... /issued 401 am CST Sat Jan 20 2018/
low clouds have overspread the area this morning, and some patchy
drizzle has developed across far southeast Oklahoma. The drizzle
will continue into the morning hours, so will add a mention across
parts of southeast Oklahoma. The hrrr suggests low clouds will
break up some by this afternoon, which will allow temperatures to
warm into the 60s. Confidence is relatively low however, so the
day shift will need to monitor cloud and temperature trends as the
day unfolds. Gusty south winds will keep fire weather concerns
around, but increasing low level moisture will limit the overall
fire threat today.
Another windy and warm day is on tap for Sunday as a strong storm
system moves into the Central Plains. A dryline is expected to
reach near the western border of our forecast area by late
afternoon, but if it moves a bit more to the east, a greater fire
danger may develop in the far northwest part of our forecast area.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop by late
Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening along and ahead of the
dryline and Pacific cold front which will overtake the dryline
Sunday evening. Instability will be limited, but a few strong to
severe wind gusts will be possible mainly from southeast Oklahoma
into western Arkansas.
Dry weather with above normal temperatures will prevail much of
next week following the passage of this storm system. Gusty west
winds Monday may result in that day seeing the greatest overall
fire danger, especially in places that do not see significant
rainfall Sunday. Another storm system will affect the area next
Friday night and Saturday bringing a chance of showers.
Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 66 53 70 37 / 10 10 30 30
fsm 64 52 71 41 / 10 10 50 80
mlc 66 56 71 39 / 10 10 50 40
bvo 65 47 70 35 / 10 10 30 30
fyv 60 50 66 38 / 10 10 40 80
byv 62 51 68 40 / 10 10 40 90
mko 65 53 70 38 / 10 10 50 50
Mio 62 51 68 37 / 10 10 40 60
f10 66 54 71 38 / 10 10 40 30
hhw 66 55 71 41 / 10 10 70 70