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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1137 PM CDT Friday Jul 29 2016


concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.

VFR conditions should prevail through the period, with winds
likely below 10 kts. Timing for thunderstorm activity at all the
terminals currently appears to be delayed from earlier thoughts,
with the best chances likely from mid morning to early afternoon
in the east OK terminals to the afternoon hours in west Arkansas. Recent runs
of the hrrr/hrrrx and the 00z NAM are all 3 in general consensus
with the general timing shift, with slightly higher confidence in
potential impacts at the NE OK terminals over the remaining ones.
Will continue to cover the thunderstorm potential with prob30


Previous discussion... /issued 936 PM CDT Friday Jul 29 2016/

cluster of showers and thunderstorms holding together over Choctaw
and southern Pushmataha counties continues to drift south and will
likely push south of the Red River in next 1-2 hours. Remainder of
the night will be quiet until potential complex of storms affects
parts of the area late tonight/Saturday morning. More recent
model runs, including 00z NAM and hrrr depict little in the way of
precip into eastern OK until after 12z, but confidence not high
enough to remove pops in place after 06z as expected small
increase in low level warm advection interacts with subtle
boundaries in place. Forecast was updated earlier to remove pops
from all but southeast OK through 06z, and no other changes will
be made at this time.

Previous discussion... /issued 555 PM CDT Friday Jul 29 2016/


concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.

VFR conditions should prevail at the terminals, except for bvo,
which could see a period of MVFR cigs during the latter half of
the valid taf period. Will continue to cover any mesoscale convective system potential
with prob30 groups, given uncertainties as to whether it will move
into the forecast area. If thunderstorm impacts do occur, it
would most likely be from 09z at bvo into early afternoon at mlc
at the west Arkansas terminals.

Previous discussion... /issued 327 PM CDT Friday Jul 29 2016/

precipitation has moved out of the area at this time. The
potential exists for another mesoscale convective system to develop upstream of our area
this evening and move southeast into and across eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas later tonight and Saturday morning. Another
mesoscale convective system will be possible farther to the east late Saturday night and
early Sunday. Beyond that time, high pressure aloft will build
back over the area bringing an end to any organized precipitation
and a return to hot temperatures for most of next week. A few
triple digit readings will be possible by the middle of next week,
and it is likely that heat headlines will once again be required
for parts of the area.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

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