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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
553 am CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Discussion...

The 12z taf discussion is included below.

&&

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
VFR conditions will prevail beneath high pressure aloft. A few
isold tsra are possible in the hi terrain of southeast OK and west AR,
however coverage is not going to be great, and chances it will
affect a terminal is low. Thus, will leave mention of thunder out
of tafs.

Lacy

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 248 am CDT Sat Jul 23 2016/

Discussion...
heat and humidity continue to be the main weather story, something
that will repeat again tomorrow and possibly into Monday as well.
Conditions this afternoon should be very similar to those
yesterday, with most areas expected to see maximum afternoon heat
index values in the 105 to 110 range. High temperatures Sunday may
be a degree or two lower than those forecast for today, as a
result of a modest increase in low cloud cover, especially across
southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. However, a corresponding
degree or two increase in low level dew points on Sunday should
offset any cooling, leading to a continuation of the 105 to 110
heat indices. No changes planned to the going areawide heat
advisories already posted for today and Sunday.

Isolated thunderstorms could make their way into a small part of
southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this afternoon, with a
slightly greater chance on Sunday as the upper level ridge
overhead shifts slowly westward.

Additional heat advisories may be required for Monday afternoon,
although this is not a slam dunk at this point. Available data
differ on how quickly the ridge will shift fully into the western
United States and also whether an approaching cold front will
actually make its way into the forecast area, rather than stopping
north of the region. This forecast will hedge toward the warmer
side of guidance, favoring a more stubborn ridge. More scattered
thunderstorm activity on the eastern periphery of the ridge,
however, should make its way into eastern parts of the forecast
area on Monday afternoon.

The advertised cooler and wetter weather should arrive fully by
the middle to latter part of the week as the ridge finally shifts
west of the region.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 101 80 100 79 / 0 0 10 10
fsm 101 79 98 78 / 20 10 30 20
mlc 100 76 98 75 / 10 0 10 10
bvo 100 75 100 74 / 0 0 10 10
fyv 95 73 94 72 / 10 10 30 20
byv 96 76 95 73 / 20 0 30 20
mko 100 75 99 76 / 0 0 20 10
Mio 97 75 97 75 / 0 0 10 10
f10 100 79 99 77 / 0 0 10 10
hhw 101 76 98 76 / 20 10 20 20

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...heat advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
okz049-053>076.

Heat advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for okz049-053>076.

Arkansas...heat advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
arz001-002-010-011-019-020-029.

Heat advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for arz001-002-010-
011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

Aviation...30

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