Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1146 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 24 2016
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Cannot
rule out a shower or thunderstorm near kbvo Thursday evening, but
the chances are too low to include in the taf at this time.
Previous discussion... /issued 910 PM CDT Wednesday Aug 24 2016/
the slow moving cold front this evening remained positioned from
the Oklahoma Texas panhandles through southern/eastern Kansas into
northern Missouri and continuing northeast into the Great Lakes
region. Afternoon convection developed again along/near the
frontal boundary along with a another surface boundary over
western Oklahoma into northern Texas. This convection remained
ongoing over western Oklahoma to eastern Kansas and northern
Missouri. A few showers and thunderstorms had clipped parts of
Osage and Pawnee counties in northeast Oklahoma...otherwise mostly
clear skies and southerly winds were common over the rest of the
County Warning Area.
Overnight tonight...these boundaries are expected to remain
nearly stationary to the west and north of the County Warning Area...along with
the majority of the ongoing convection. Increasing low level jet
should be maximized near the frontal boundary to the north of the
County Warning Area tonight...with a more stable airmass over the region as the
boundary layer continues to cool within the mostly clear skies.
Thus...will leave small chances for showers and thunderstorms
northwest of Interstate 44...mainly Osage and Pawnee counties
again for the overnight hours. A strong wind gust could be
possible within any thunderstorm activity over the next few hours
with decreasing potential late tonight.
Since the boundaries hold off on reaching the County Warning Area tonight...the
majority of the region should remain mostly clear to partly cloudy
overnight. Locations northwest of Interstate 44 look to be partly
to mostly cloudy. These conditions along with dewpoints forecast
to be slightly lower compared to last night...temps could be a few
degrees cooler as well with low around 70 to mid 70s possible. The
evening update will be to add only minor tweaks the hourly
pop/temp/dewpoint/sky/wind grids based on latest trends and
conditions. The rest of forecast look to be handling well at this