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fxus64 ktsa 232336 
afdtsa

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
536 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Gusty south winds will diminish some this evening...ahead of
the approaching cold front that should push through 08-12z.
Areas of MVFR cigs will be possible behind the front...mainly
for the northeast OK and northwest Arkansas taf sites. Gusty
northwest winds will kick up by Friday morning and into the
afternoon.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 353 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

Discussion...
after a day of record warmth...one of the warmest February days on
record in Tulsa for the 2nd time this month...big changes are on
the way. A cold front will sweep across the area overnight
bringing temperatures back to near or even slightly below normal
for the next couple days. Fire danger will remain a concern Friday
despite the cooler temperatures due to breezy west to northwest
winds.

A warming trend will begin Sunday, but there are significant model
differences beginning as early as Sunday and continuing into next
week. The GFS is much more bullish than the European model (ecmwf)/UKMET/Gem with
an upper wave, resulting in widespread precipitation and the true
warm sector getting suppressed to our south. Will follow much
closer to the majority, with lower precipitation chances, and much
warmer temperatures heading into early next week. Tuesday may be
another day of heightened fire weather concerns as gusty south
winds occur ahead of the next cold front. The European model (ecmwf) suggests
temperatures Tuesday may get out of hand again, but for now will
temper them somewhat due to uncertainty. This front will bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night,
with some threat of severe weather. Temperatures will then fall
back to more seasonable levels by the middle of next week.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 43 55 25 51 / 10 0 0 0
fsm 50 64 29 52 / 0 0 0 0
mlc 45 60 28 52 / 0 0 0 0
bvo 41 53 23 50 / 10 0 0 0
fyv 47 57 23 47 / 0 0 0 0
byv 52 59 24 47 / 0 10 0 0
mko 46 58 26 50 / 0 0 0 0
Mio 45 53 23 48 / 10 0 0 0
f10 44 57 27 50 / 0 0 0 0
hhw 50 66 31 55 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...red flag warning until 7 PM CST this evening for okz049-053>055-
059-060-064>068-070>076.

Arkansas...none.
&&

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