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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1218 am CDT sun Apr 30 2017

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Last band of convection will continue to impact western Arkansas
taf sites through around 08z. Band of lighter precip will move
through tonight maintaining IFR ceilings in most locations
overnight. Gradual improvement to MVFR conditions will occur
Sunday with strong and gusty southwest-west winds developing and
continuing through much of Sunday evening.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 639 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Widespread ongoing convection will continue to impact terminals
into the early morning hours on Sunday. A general decrease in
stronger convection will be followed by chances for light rain and
continued low ceilings. Strong winds on Sunday and gradual
improvement into MVFR ceilings is expected.

Previous discussion... /issued 328 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

Discussion...
a high impact flooding event continues across the region...with
several flash flood warnings in effect for a large part of
northeast OK and northwest Arkansas. Multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms have resulted in widespread 2-5 inch rain amounts
with some local amounts over 6-7 inches. We've received numerous
reports of street flooding...closed bridges and high
water...especially across northwest Arkansas. Mainstem river flooding
will be a major issue...with 23 forecast points currently in
flood (many moderate to major).

Currently...a stationary front was draped across northwest Arkansas into
southeast OK to a surface wave near Durant. One area of heavy rain
continues along this boundary...with a secondary area of
showers/storms farther west along inverted surface trof. The
multiple rounds of precipitation have sufficiently squashed the
warm sector...although far southeast OK remains quite warm/moist
and unstable (dewpoints running in the lower/mid 70s). Will need
to monitor this area over the next few hours for potential severe
convection.

The secondary area of showers/storms will persist through the
rest of the afternoon/early evening...moving back over areas that
received significant rainfall. Expect flash flood/areal flood
warnings to continue well into the overnight hours.

Rainfall will taper off later this evening and overnight as the
deep upper cyclone lifts northeast into Kansas. Could see some
lingering wraparound showers into Sunday morning...otherwise
expect a cool and very breezy day.

The next chance of precipitation comes Tuesday night into
Wednesday as a fast moving upper trof drops southeast through The
Rockies. A developing surface boundary across the region will be
the main focus...with most precipitation mainly along and north of
the front. This would result in additional rainfall across areas
that have been hit hard over the past 24 hours.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 42 72 49 76 / 10 10 0 10
fsm 44 74 49 80 / 10 10 0 10
mlc 45 74 51 79 / 10 0 0 10
bvo 40 70 45 74 / 10 10 0 10
fyv 42 67 47 75 / 10 10 0 10
byv 42 66 48 74 / 10 10 0 10
mko 42 72 48 76 / 10 10 0 10
Mio 42 66 44 73 / 20 10 0 10
f10 43 72 50 77 / 10 0 0 10
hhw 45 74 53 80 / 10 0 0 10

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 7 am CDT this morning for okz057-058-062-
063-068-069-072-076.

Arkansas...Flash Flood Watch until 7 am CDT this morning for arz001-002-010-
011-019-020-029.

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