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fxus64 ktsa 220421 
afdtsa

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1121 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Discussion...

The discussion for the 06z taf forecast is included below.

&&

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
A ridge of high pressure aloft will maintain VFR conditions thru
the period. South surface winds will gust to near 15kts during the
midday and afternoon hours on Saturday at the NE OK and northwest Arkansas sites.

Lacy

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 758 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017/

...

Discussion...
other than hot and muggy, pretty quiet weather across the region
this evening. Just a few tweaks made to temperatures, otherwise
no additional forecast changes expected for the remainder of this
evening.

Previous discussion... /issued 248 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017/

Discussion...
heat indices have climbed to around 110 degrees in several
locations already this afternoon across northeast Oklahoma and
will likely Max out in the 110-113 degree range. Therefore, the
heat advisory has been upgraded to an excessive heat warning for a
large portion of eastern Oklahoma. Expect similar conditions
Saturday afternoon as upper high continues to dominate the overall
weather pattern. Stayed fairly close to persistence for lows
tonight and with high temperatures/dewpoints Saturday afternoon.

Portions of the advisory/warning may need to be extended into
Sunday depending on cloud cover and how long precipitation holds
off Sunday afternoon. Still expect a weak boundary to move into
northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas by late Sunday afternoon or
early evening. Scattered strong thunderstorms will likely develop
near boundary with a slow southward progression Sunday evening.
Pwats are forecast to be around 2 inches by this time and with the
slow storm motions expected, locally heavy rainfall will be
possible in a few areas.

Additional scattered showers/thunderstorms will persist Monday
and Tuesday as weakness in upper ridge/light northwest flow
continues. Upper high will build back into the Southern Plains by
mid week with the heat/humidity returning.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 81 101 80 98 / 0 10 10 30
fsm 79 99 78 97 / 0 10 10 30
mlc 78 97 77 97 / 0 0 0 30
bvo 76 103 75 96 / 0 10 10 40
fyv 73 94 72 93 / 0 10 10 40
byv 74 98 74 93 / 0 10 10 40
mko 74 97 75 97 / 0 10 0 30
Mio 76 95 75 94 / 0 10 10 40
f10 76 99 74 97 / 0 10 0 30
hhw 76 97 75 97 / 0 0 0 20

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for okz049-053-059-063-068-
069-072-076.

Excessive heat warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for okz054>058-
060>062-064>067-070-071-073>075.

Arkansas...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for arz001-002-010-011-019-
020-029.

&&

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