Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 ktsa 192338 
afdtsa

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
538 PM CST sun Feb 19 2017

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Mainly VFR to MVFR ceilings will prevail into early Monday. A band
of showers and thunderstorms will begin to affect the eastern
Oklahoma taf sites after midnight, and will reach the northwest
Arkansas sites by morning. Conditions will improve from the
northwest during the day Monday.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 257 PM CST sun Feb 19 2017/

Discussion...
low clouds have hung tough across southeast OK this
afternoon...but we've seen enough clearing elsewhere for temps to
warm back into the lower/mid 70s. Moisture return is well underway
with lower 60s dewpoints across the southern half of OK...and
local radars are beginning to detect developing showers across
parts of west central Texas into southwest OK.

Showers/few thunderstorms will develop quickly northward this
evening...with the activity eventually spreading east into the
forecast primarily after midnight. A few strong storms will be
possible across southeast OK..but the better chances of severe
weather are expected to remain farther south in Texas. Precipitation
chances will wind down Monday morning across eastern OK and by
late afternoon/evening across western Arkansas as the upper trof axis
gradually shifts east.

A quick return to southerly flow along with active
west/southwesterly mid-level flow will result in a few days of
very warm weather...with highs well into the 70s Tuesday through
Thursday. The fire danger threat will be on the rise as well..with
the strongest winds expected for Thursday ahead of an approaching
cold front. The end of the week and into next weekend will be
cooler behind the front.

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.

&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations