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fxus64 ktsa 280448 
afdtsa

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1148 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
to develop overnight and into Friday in the vicinity of a cold
front as it moves through the area. This activity will affect
the northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas taf sites tonight
and kmlc and kfsm mainly on Friday. MVFR ceilings will be possible
behind the front late tonight into Friday morning.



&&

Previous discussion... /issued 919 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017/

...

Discussion...
the cold front had finally entered into northeast Oklahoma this
evening. Current position was from the Texas Panhandle through
southwest/central Oklahoma...across Pawnee...Osage and Washington
counties in northeast Oklahoma and extended into the far southeast
corner of Kansas and across southern Missouri. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms had developed along the front in southeast
Kansas and southern Missouri with a few isolated storms in
western/central Oklahoma. Most of northeast Oklahoma had remained
dry this evening as the frontal boundary continued its slow
movement south southeast. Across the rest of eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas...mostly cloudy and humid conditions continued
this evening.

Overnight tonight...the cold front is forecast to move across
northeast Oklahoma and into southeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas by Friday morning. In response...will continue with
chance pops mainly along and north of the I-40 corridor as the
ongoing precip in southeast Kansas is progged to drop southeast
through the County Warning Area overnight. Some scattered development from the
activity ongoing over central Oklahoma will also be possible
across the County Warning Area tonight ahead of the frontal boundary. With the
loss of daytime heating and weak shear values...severe weather is
not anticipated overnight. Though...with high precipitable water values...periods
of heavy rainfall maybe possible due to the slow movement of the
thunderstorms. Have adjusted pops slightly based on the movement
of the front for the evening update.

Temperatures tonight should remain on the warm side ahead of the
front with mid/upper 70s forecast again. Behind the front...the
drier dewpoints and cooler conditions look to be lagging behind
the front a bit. Thus...lows in the low/mid 70s will remain
possible. The cooler/drier conditions look to finally make it
into the County Warning Area during the day Friday as they get a push southward
from a shortwave forecast to drop southeast out of Canada into the
Great Lakes region Friday. Have added minor tweaks to
temps/dewpoints/sky/wind grids based on current trends and
observations for the evening update. The rest of the forecast
seems to be handling well at this time.

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

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