Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
624 am CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Areas of fog has resulted in vlifr/LIFR vsbys and cigs at area taf
sites this morning...and will prevail through mid morning before
conditions begin to improve to VFR around 17z and prevail through
later tonight when at that time MVFR/IFR vsbys will be possible
again with fog development.
Previous discussion... /issued 352 am CDT Thu Oct 27 2016/
dense fog and how long it persists this morning is the main
forecast challenge today. Dense fog remains rather patchy early
this morning, but is expected to become more widespread by
sunrise, and thus have issued a dense fog advisory for our entire
forecast area. The fog may be more patchy and tend to burn off
quicker from far southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas,
but will likely remain quite dense across much of northeast
Oklahoma until late morning. Will run the advisory through 11 am,
with rapid improvement expected near and after that time. The
persistent fog will have some impact on temperatures, so have held
readings in northeast Oklahoma several degrees lower than places
to the south where the fog will burn off quicker.
Unseasonably warm, and in some cases near record breaking, warmth
will then prevail Friday through next Tuesday. An upper level
storm system will approach from the west by the middle of next
week, bringing increasing cloudiness which will knock temperatures
back a few degrees by Wednesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances
will also be on the increase by next Wednesday and especially
Thursday and Thursday night. A more significant cold front looks
to finally move through the area late next week knocking
temperatures back down to where they should be in early November.
Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.
OK...dense fog advisory until 11 am CDT this morning for okz049-
Arkansas...dense fog advisory until 11 am CDT this morning for arz001-002-