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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
223 am CDT Wednesday Jul 27 2016

Discussion...

Latest cam models indicate we should see a day similar to
yesterday across the region. Moist and weakly capped environment
will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms, with coverage
dropping off quickly after sunset this evening. The mid level flow
will become more northwesterly on Thursday, due mostly in part to
a shortwave trough over the mid-Mississippi Valley. This should
shunt the deep layer moist axis to the south and east a
bit, and thus less coverage of storms area wide on Thursday
afternoon.

The strengthening northwest flow aloft will also bring the potential for
mcs's to roll off the High Plains and into our area during the
late night and early morning time period. The most favored time
window will be Thursday night into Friday, and Friday night into
Saturday. There is still some uncertainty on the track of the mesoscale convective system
Thursday night into Friday. The European model (ecmwf) tracks the system into our
area, while the GFS suggests it will dive more south into west or
central OK. Will stay in The Middle Ground for pops until this
becomes fairly clear. Rising mid level heights on Saturday will
put an end to this brief window for mesoscale convective system activity.

The mid level ridge becomes established yet again over The Heart
of the country next week. This will bring a return to hot and dry
weather, aside from some isolated afternoon storms in the terrain
of southeast OK/west Arkansas.

Lacy

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 93 74 93 73 / 50 20 20 50
fsm 95 74 93 74 / 50 30 40 30
mlc 94 73 93 73 / 50 30 30 20
bvo 92 70 93 69 / 30 20 20 50
fyv 90 70 89 68 / 50 30 40 30
byv 89 71 89 69 / 50 30 40 30
mko 93 73 93 72 / 50 30 30 40
Mio 92 72 92 71 / 30 20 30 30
f10 93 74 93 73 / 50 30 20 40
hhw 95 74 93 73 / 50 30 40 20

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Long term....30

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