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fxus64 ktsa 241054 
afdtsa

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
554 am CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Some patchy fog will be possible early this morning across
northwest Arkansas...otherwise expected VFR conditions. Could see a
few showers/storms this afternoon across southeast OK into
northwest Arkansas...but chances too low and coverage too sparse to
mention in tafs.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 226 am CDT Mon Jul 24 2017/

Discussion...
remnants of yesterday's mesoscale convective system have largely pushed into North Texas,
with only a few trailing showers continuing across far southeast
Oklahoma. Additional thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon, primarily across parts of southeast Oklahoma and west
central Arkansas, in response to a vort Max dropping southward
through the area. Much of this activity should diminish with the
loss of daytime heating. Mid and high clouds persisting through
the day to the southeast of I-44 will keep temperatures down (in
the low to mid 90s), with areas along and north of the Interstate
seeing above normal temperatures despite the front in the area.
Tuesday should be dry in most spots, although there is a slight
chance of mainly afternoon development in parts of far eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

Triple digit heat will return to parts of the region by Wednesday
as the upper ridge builds overhead. Yesterday's rainfall should
have an effect on temperatures in areas that actually saw rain,
and as such, forecast temperatures for mid week reflect at least
a couple of degree decrease from blended guidance in regions that
saw the most. Heat headlines will likely be needed once again for
parts of the upcoming week.

Northwest flow will develop across the central and Southern Plains
region late this week and into the weekend, as the upper ridge
shifts and amplifies across the western United States. Medium
range guidance still differs on timing of the late week front and
associated showers and thunderstorm chances, with the GFS
continuing to favor a faster solution by 12-24 hours. With the
differences, will go no higher than a 30 percent pop and a slight
hedge toward a slower solution. Much more pleasant temperatures
and dew points will follow the front for the upcoming weekend.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 97 75 98 80 / 10 10 10 10
fsm 94 76 96 76 / 30 20 20 10
mlc 93 73 94 76 / 20 20 10 0
bvo 97 68 97 72 / 10 10 10 10
fyv 90 69 91 70 / 20 20 20 10
byv 94 70 93 72 / 20 20 20 10
mko 93 72 94 74 / 20 20 10 0
Mio 95 70 96 74 / 10 10 10 0
f10 95 73 96 75 / 10 10 10 0
hhw 91 73 95 75 / 40 20 10 0

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.

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