Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 ktsa 221716
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1116 am CST Mon Jan 22 2018
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Gusty west winds expected to continue through this afternoon,
with sfc gusts approaching 35-40 knots in parts of northeast OK.
A gradual decrease in wind speeds will occur overnight. Ceilings
in the 4-5 kft range also expected at most sites through the day,
but should remain in the VFR category before skies clear from the
west after 00z.
Previous discussion... /issued 1029 am CST Mon Jan 22 2018/
wind gusts consistently in the 40-45 mph over Osage and Pawnee
counties this morning as deep surface low passes to the north.
Wind Advisory was issued for areas along and west of Highway 75,
but may need to add additional counties to the east as winds
Haver shown upward trend in the past hour, presumably with
stronger winds aloft mixing down. Winds should diminish enough to
allow expiration at 6 PM. Radar echoes thus far remaining well
north of the border and will keep the dry forecast going. As for
fire weather, cooler temps and higher relative humidity will offset the strong
winds for the most part. Lowest relative humidity will remain confined more to
southeast OK where significant rains fell last night.
Additional updated may be required to add to the Wind Advisory.
Previous discussion... /issued 354 am CST Mon Jan 22 2018/
gusty west winds and the resulting fire weather potential will be
the main focus of the forecast today. Considered a Wind Advisory
for parts of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas today,
but considerable cloud cover is expected to spread back across
that area, and may inhibit mixing just enough to keep gusts below
the advisory threshold. Thus will not issue an advisory at this
time. Despite much cooler temperatures today, fire danger will
still be a concern where widespread significant rainfall did not
occur Sunday afternoon and evening, and will issue a fire danger
statement for those areas.
Above normal temperatures appear to be here to stay until further
notice. A warming trend will be seen Tuesday through Thursday,
with most places warming back into the 60s by Thursday afternoon.
The next storm system is still on track to affect the area Friday
into early Saturday, but the latest trends are for a weaker
system. Significant precipitation does not appear likely at this
time, but at least low chance pops appear warranted, especially
from southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas.
A mild Pacific airmass will remain in place next weekend following
the passage of this system, so temperatures will continue to run
above the seasonal normals, with even warmer readings possible
heading into next week.
Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 50 29 53 27 / 10 0 0 0
fsm 54 32 54 29 / 10 0 0 0
mlc 54 30 55 27 / 10 0 0 0
bvo 48 26 53 22 / 10 0 0 0
fyv 47 28 48 24 / 10 0 0 0
byv 48 29 48 27 / 10 10 0 0
mko 51 29 53 28 / 10 0 0 0
Mio 46 28 48 26 / 10 10 0 0
f10 52 30 54 29 / 10 0 0 0
hhw 56 32 57 29 / 10 0 0 0
OK...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for okz054-055-059-060-