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000 
FXUS64 KTSA 252318
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
518 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

Light and variable winds through 15-16Z before becoming more
southerly as surface return flow sets up. A slight wave in 
generally zonal flow will allow mid-level clouds to increase 
through the day Sunday. As wave moves through late in the period, 
a few light showers cannot be ruled out across southeast OK and 
western AR. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 342 PM CST Sat Feb 25 2017/ 

DISCUSSION...
It's been a beautiful late winter day across the area...with below
normal temperatures for a change. Active weather remains north 
and east...with strong upper storm system forcing a severe line of
thunderstorms across the mid-Atlantic states this afternoon.

We will remain within zonal flow in the upper levels through 
Sunday...with a weak wave arriving by Sunday evening into Monday. 
There may be enough moisture for a few light showers or sprinkles 
Sunday night with the better chance for precipitation across 
southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Sustained southerly winds
and increasing moisture on Monday will result in highs in the mid
60s despite the increase in clouds and possible precipitation. 
Tuesday will be the warmest day of the week ahead of cold front 
arriving by early Wednesday morning. This will also raise fire 
weather concerns with increasing winds on Tuesday afternoon. 

Increased large scale ascent associated with approaching upper
wave combined with forcing along and ahead of the front will 
likely support a line of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday
night. Given strong wind fields and instability, some of these
storms could pose a threat for severe wind or hail.  

Quiet weather is expected for the rest of the week...with
temperatures running just at or slightly above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   32  57  40  66 /   0  10  20  20 
FSM   30  58  42  65 /   0  10  60  20 
MLC   33  58  43  68 /   0  10  40  30 
BVO   26  56  34  66 /   0  20  10  20 
FYV   23  54  36  63 /   0  10  40  20 
BYV   27  53  39  61 /   0  10  30  20 
MKO   31  56  40  65 /   0  10  30  20 
MIO   29  53  37  64 /   0  20  10  20 
F10   33  57  43  65 /   0  10  20  20 
HHW   33  59  47  70 /   0  30  70  30 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

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