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fxus64 ktsa 300445 
afdtsa

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1145 PM CDT Mon may 29 2017

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Some high clouds are possible overnight associated with High
Plains convection. Some of the short term model guidance suggests
there is a low chance of isolated showers after 12z for portions
of northeast Oklahoma. Evening soundings showed only modest
elevated instability however. Better chance for scattered storms
will be in the afternoon and will add a mention of thunderstorms in the vicinity for the
northern OK terminals. Light winds will prevail at all taf sites
through the period.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 641 PM CDT Mon may 29 2017/

Discussion...

Low pops were extended slightly downstream of the current
activity across portions of northeast Oklahoma thru 02z, but
thunder probs will not be extended beyond 00z. The afternoon
showers and isolated storms that formed along a weak front are
weakening and this trend should continue as we go farther past
peak heating. The remainder of the forecast was left intact.

Lacy

Previous discussion... /issued 624 PM CDT Mon may 29 2017/

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Enhanced convergence along weak cold front across northeast OK has
allowed for a few showers and thunderstorms to develop late this
afternoon. Latest radar data show any lightning should stay away
from the terminals at ktul/krvs. Weakening trend and loss of
diurnal instability would suggest no mention of thunder is needed
at any of the northwest Arkansas terminals. Winds will be light with a minor
wind shift to northwest before gradient relaxes and light
southerly flow resumes.

Previous discussion... /issued 326 PM CDT Mon may 29 2017/

Discussion...
weak cold front has pushed into NE OK with an axis of agitated cumulus
marking the the boundary. Conditions are weakly unstable with no
inhibition suggesting an isolated thunderstorm is possible
through early evening but coverage is likely to be very low.
Further west storms will develop along the Front Range and spread
eastward overnight north of the aforementioned boundary.
Expectation is that this convection will be weakening and
lessening in coverage this far eastward. The decaying frontal zone
will remain a potential focus for low thunderstorm chances both
Tuesday and Wednesday, but again overall coverage is likely to be
very low. High temps will remain above normal through mid week.

Data remain consistent in translating a weak mid level low
eastward across the Southern Plains for late week. The primary
belt of westerlies will have shifted north providing several days
of enhanced lift in vicinity of the forecast area. Furthermore
moisture deepens in advance of this feature and the forecast will
continue to trend upward with precip chances Thursday and Friday.
Extensive convection and cloud cover will keep temps lower through
late week. The severe weather potential will likely be low with a
focus toward locally heavy rainfall. A potential frontal passage
next weekend keeps daily precip chances through the extended
forecast.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 61 85 64 87 / 10 20 10 20
fsm 63 89 65 88 / 0 10 10 20
mlc 59 88 64 87 / 0 0 0 10
bvo 56 84 60 86 / 20 30 20 20
fyv 55 82 59 83 / 0 20 10 20
byv 56 81 60 82 / 0 30 20 20
mko 60 86 62 86 / 0 10 10 20
Mio 57 83 61 84 / 20 30 20 20
f10 59 87 63 86 / 0 10 10 10
hhw 61 87 65 87 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

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