Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
549 am CDT Fri Oct 28 2016
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Patchy fog currently in the bvo/revise areas will likely dissipate
shortly after sunrise as southerly winds quickly increase.
Winds will become gusty across northeast Oklahoma by late
morning/early afternoon, otherwise VFR conditions are expected.
Previous discussion... /issued 449 am CDT Fri Oct 28 2016/
Another morning of fog across northeast Oklahoma and southeast
Kansas, though not as widespread as yesterday morning. As such, a
dense fog advisory is in effect until 10 am this morning for the
areas encompassed generally along and north of Hwy 412 between Hwy
75 and the eastern Oklahoma border. Winds have already begun to
increase out of the south and current thinking is that the fog will
dissipate much more quickly this morning.
Additional concerns today and tomorrow will be the above normal
temperatures, gusty winds, and dry fuels which will lead to
heightened fire weather concerns. Deepening Lee trough along the
higher terrain and surface high elongating eastwards will increase
the pressure gradient over the Central Plains. Decent lapse rates
extending to around 850mb will help mix down higher momentum winds.
While not expected to meet red flag criteria either today or
tomorrow, fire weather concerns bear watching, especially since
finer fuels have had ample time to dry out.
Unseasonably warm weather will extend US into the next month as we
look at highs in the upper 70s and low 80s to welcome in November.
Given that both Tulsa and Fort Smith are in the top 5 warmest
octobers on record, it will be interesting to see what the month of
A surface front will move into the region late Saturday and into
Sunday then looks to stall and wash out by Monday. Weekend
temperatures won't see much of a temperature dip, and will quickly
recover from a very weak attempt at a few degree cooldown.
Precipitation chances remain low until midweek when another front
nears the region in conjunction with a shortwave trough ejecting out
onto the plains.
OK...dense fog advisory until 10 am CDT this morning for okz055>058-