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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
644 PM CDT Thursday Jul 28 2016

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Ongoing convection at revise/tul and in vicinity of fsm/fyv will end
quickly this evening. Organized convection in north central Kansas
expected to move southeastward overnight affecting nern OK and nwrn
Arkansas sites 09-16z. Some light fog possible nwrn Arkansas sites and revise late
tonight. Additional scattered thunderstorms and rain development probable across ern
OK/nwrn Arkansas Friday afternoon.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 310 PM CDT Thursday Jul 28 2016/

Discussion...
isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop this
afternoon primarily within an instability axis that roughly
extends along the I-44 corridor at present, aided by a slow moving
outflow boundary from morning convection in Kansas. The storms
should largely remain below severe levels owing to a lack of deep
layer shear, but instability alone could produce gusty, near
severe winds in the strongest storms.

Attention then turns to the ongoing development of thunderstorms
in southwest Nebraska and northeast Kansas that should eventually
transition into an mesoscale convective system overnight. Thunderstorms are currently
developing in response to a mid level disturbance near the
Wyoming/South Dakota/Nebraska border, likely pushing toward the
southeast through the night. Any thunderstorm complex should
arrive well after midnight, continuing past dawn Friday morning
across at least a portion of the forecast area. Additional
afternoon thunderstorm developing will be possible, primarily
across the southern half of the area, along any remnant boundaries
from the expected mesoscale convective system and/or the weak front that will push
through the area as well. Another thunderstorm complex is
expected Saturday morning with another disturbance that will pass
through the region in the persistent northwest flow aloft.

Thunderstorm chances will linger across the eastern half of the
forecast area into Sunday, but largely dry conditions will prevail
thereafter as the upper level ridge builds back into the Southern
Plains. Temperatures will likely push triple digits by the middle
to latter part of next week, with some potential for heat
headlines.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 74 89 72 89 / 50 50 40 50
fsm 74 91 74 91 / 30 50 40 50
mlc 73 91 72 92 / 30 30 30 40
bvo 70 87 69 88 / 50 60 40 50
fyv 69 86 67 86 / 40 60 40 50
byv 70 85 68 86 / 30 50 40 50
mko 73 89 72 90 / 30 50 40 50
Mio 71 87 68 86 / 40 60 40 50
f10 73 90 72 91 / 40 40 40 40
hhw 73 93 73 95 / 20 40 20 30

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Long term....22
aviation...69

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