Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 ktsa 242009
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
309 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017
showers and thunderstorms have persisted across southeastern Oklahoma into
northwest Arkansas this afternoon. This activity has been elevated in nature
and is occurring in a area of favorable upper level divergence in advance
of an upper level low currently spinning over the Texas Panhandle. Rainfall
amounts are approaching 1 inch in a few locations across southeast Oklahoma.
This activity will shift to the east over the next several hours. There is still
the potential that some of these storms could become strong to severe as they move
into something of a more favorable airmass. These storms are expected to be east of
the Tulsa County warning area by mid-evening.
A few showers and thunderstorms have also begun to develop along the dryline across
western Osage and Pawnee counties. There is potential for this activity to continue
to develop along the dryline and move into northeast Oklahoma for the next several
hours as well. The airmass just ahead of the dryline is becoming increasingly unstable
with stronger heating taking place. There is also the potential that some of these
storms could become strong to severe with damaging winds to around 70 mph and Golf Ball size
hail the concern.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight and into Saturday morning
as the upper level low moves out of the Texas Panhandle and across Oklahoma. The upper
level low will be over southwest Missouri by early Saturday morning. These storms will
be elevated in nature but will be capable of producing large hail.
Will continue the red flag warning through 00z for areas of west of Highway 75 in
northeast Oklahoma as the dryline tries to move into that area.
The remainder of Saturday will be dry as ridging aloft builds over the region. The
next chance of thunderstorms will Sunday into Monday morning as the next in a
series of upper level disturbances move across the area. There is expected to be
adequate shear and instability for some of these storms to become strong to severe
especially Sunday afternoon and evening.
After a benign period of weather most of Monday and Tuesday, the chances of showers
and thunderstorms ramp up Tuesday night into Wednesday as the next upper level
low moves out of the southwest United States and across the plains. Models suggest
that this system will be even more vigorous than the previous two. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will linger into Thursday before the system exits to the east.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 52 66 46 78 / 70 20 0 30
fsm 53 68 47 81 / 70 20 0 10
mlc 52 71 47 82 / 50 10 0 30
bvo 50 65 42 75 / 70 20 0 30
fyv 51 62 44 74 / 70 50 10 10
byv 53 64 46 73 / 70 70 10 10
mko 52 67 46 79 / 60 20 0 30
Mio 52 61 44 74 / 70 60 10 10
f10 52 68 47 80 / 60 10 0 30
hhw 53 73 49 82 / 30 0 0 20
OK...red flag warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for okz054-059-064-