Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 ktsa 132329
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
529 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. High pressure
continues to settle into the region and will allow winds to stay
light and variable overnight becoming light northerly through the
day tomorrow. Mid-to-upper level cloud deck will begin to develop
ahead of the next incoming weekend system.
Previous discussion... /issued 206 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017/
The main items of interest in the forecast will be fire weather
concerns, both this afternoon and again on Saturday, and rain
chances this weekend into early next week. The forecast going into
the Christmas Holiday weekend still remains highly uncertain.
Gusty winds both ahead of and behind a frontal boundary are
raising fire weather concerns across portions of NE OK and west Arkansas
this afternoon. Relative humidity values are down near 20%...so the gusty winds
and changing directions could cause some fire fighting headaches
if fires were to get started. After a couple of much cooler days
Thursday and Friday, strong south winds and warmer temps return
Saturday, and thus a return of higher fire weather concerns.
The upper ridge axis in the west has shifted west slightly, and a
compact pv Max was dropping south over Idaho to its east. This system
will drop down The Spine of The Rockies and down into old Mexico
by the end of the week, while closing off. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) both
agree that this system will eventually get picked up by the next
wave as we head into the weekend. The upper low will open up and
lift quickly to the northeast over the weekend, and will draw
moisture north into the south central Continental U.S.. our area will be on
the western fringe of the moist tongue, with eastern areas
standing the best chance for some light rain Saturday night into
Sunday. Rain chances end quickly on Sunday as the open wave lifts
off to the northeast. The details regarding the upstream system
still remain fairly uncertain. The GFS digs the system deep into
the SW Continental U.S. And then ejects east over our area Monday night,
while the European model (ecmwf) is more progressive, and slides the system by just
to our north Sunday night. If the European model (ecmwf) verifies to the letter, a
light rain/snow mix would be possible near the Kansas border. The
slower GFS would be all rain based on its warmer thermal profile.
After a cool start to the week, temps should rebound back above
average toward the middle of next week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 66 34 47 31 / 0 0 0 10
fsm 65 36 51 30 / 0 0 0 0
mlc 68 36 52 30 / 0 0 0 0
bvo 66 33 47 27 / 0 0 0 10
fyv 61 30 44 27 / 0 0 0 0
byv 63 32 42 28 / 0 0 0 0
mko 67 34 48 30 / 0 0 0 0
Mio 63 32 44 29 / 0 0 0 10
f10 68 35 50 30 / 0 0 0 0
hhw 70 37 57 31 / 0 0 0 0