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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
605 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Ongoing isolated convection will wane after sunset with VFR
conditions prevailing. Isolated to scattered storms are expected
Sunday afternoon W/ higher chances across southeast OK and west Arkansas.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 314 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016/

Discussion...
a hot...unstable and uncapped atmosphere has yield isolated
convection across parts of far southeast OK and northwest Arkansas this
afternoon. Have extended low pop into the early evening...with any
activity diminishing with the loss of heating. Similar conditions
expected on Sunday...with yet another hot/humid day in store. May
see a little more coverage of showers/thunderstorms develop during
the afternoon as a weak wave drifts through central to western
Arkansas.

The upper ridge will begin to retrograde a bit by Monday...which
may allow a weak boundary to drop into the far northern sections
of the forecast area. The possibility of bit more convection/cloud
cover will keep ME from extending the heat advisory another
day...but later shifts will need to re-evaluate.

The combination of the retrograding upper ridge and subtropical
ridge will result in lower heights/mid-level weakness across the
area for much of mid-to-late next week. Expect periods of
showers/thunderstorms along with cooler/more seasonal temperatures.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 80 101 79 99 / 0 10 10 30
fsm 79 99 78 95 / 20 30 20 40
mlc 76 99 77 96 / 10 10 10 40
bvo 75 101 74 96 / 0 10 20 30
fyv 73 95 72 93 / 10 30 20 40
byv 76 96 73 92 / 20 30 20 40
mko 75 100 76 96 / 0 20 10 40
Mio 75 98 75 94 / 0 10 20 40
f10 79 100 77 96 / 0 10 10 30
hhw 76 99 76 96 / 20 20 20 40

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...heat advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for okz049-053>076.

Heat advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for okz049-053>076.

Arkansas...heat advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for arz001-002-010-011-
019-020-029.

Heat advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for arz001-002-010-
011-019-020-029.

&&

$$

Aviation...07

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