Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus65 ktfx 202250 
afdtfx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls Montana
450 PM MDT Fri Jul 20 2018

..updated aviation discussion...

Synopsis...
high pressure will reside over the region into Saturday, allowing
for hot and dry conditions to prevail. A fast moving cold front
will move through the region later Saturday, cooling temperatures
to slightly below normal readings for Sunday. Little to no
precipitation is expected until later next week.

&&

Discussion...
today through Sunday...high pressure over the region will keep hot
and dry conditions over the region into Saturday. With breezy
afternoon conditions today and tomorrow, a red flag warning is in
effect for both days. A fast moving cold front will move through
the region later Saturday into Sunday. Expect cooler temperatures
Sunday and a wind shift with the frontal passage, with any
thunderstorms confined to the eastern portions of central Montana.

Monday through Friday...a westerly flow aloft will reside over the
region to begin the week, resulting in mostly dry conditions and
near normal temperatures. By later in the week the GFS/ec start to
diverge a bit. The GFS brings several upper level disturbances
through the region from Wednesday night through Friday, and is
rather wet by Friday. However, the ec model is much drier/warmer.
Thus confidence is low for the extended forecast at this time,
especially beyond Tuesday. Brusda

&&

Aviation...
updated 2250z.
VFR conditions with generally clear skies expected
over the region through the period, with the possible exception of
areas east of khvr where an isolated thunderstorm is possible this
evening through the early overnight. Breezy/windy west winds are
expected over north central Montana til around 03z, with the exception of
klwt where a light southeast wind will remain.

&&

Fire weather...
red flag warning for the lower elevations this afternoon/evening
because of low humidity and windy west winds. These conditions
are also expected Saturday, and thus fire weather highlights have
been issued for a little broader region Saturday afternoon.
Elsewhere, expect dry/hot/breezy conditions. A fast moving cold
front will move through the region later Saturday, bringing
cooler temperatures to the region Sunday. The next chance for
widespread showers/thunderstorms looks to be late next week.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
gtf 54 90 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
ctb 47 82 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
hln 57 89 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
bzn 51 88 50 82 / 0 10 10 0
wey 32 79 43 78 / 0 20 0 0
dln 52 87 47 81 / 0 10 10 0
hvr 57 91 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
lwt 55 86 52 75 / 0 0 10 0

&&

Tfx watches/warnings/advisories...

Red flag warning until 11 PM MDT this evening below 5000 feet
for eastern Glacier/Toole/central/eastern Pondera/Liberty...
Lewis And Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain district-Rocky
Mountain front.

Red flag warning from noon Saturday to midnight MDT Saturday
night central and eastern Lewis And Clark National Forest
areas...Chouteau and Fergus counties...eastern
Glacier/Toole/central/eastern Pondera/Liberty...Helena and
Townsend Ranger districts of the Helena National Forest...hill
and Blaine counties...Lewis And Clark National Forest Rocky
Mountain district-Rocky Mountain front...Lincoln Ranger district
of the Helena National Forest.

Red flag warning until 11 PM MDT this evening central and
eastern Lewis And Clark National Forest areas...Helena and
Townsend Ranger districts of the Helena National Forest.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations