Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktbw 221356
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
956 am EDT Fri Sep 22 2017
low level east to northeast flow around high pressure over the
eastern U.S. Will bring Atlantic moisture westward today and this
combined with daytime heating and the sea breezes will lead to
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and early
evening. Convection should move west out into the eastern Gulf
during during the evening with partly cloudy skies overnight. More
moisture spreads westward on Saturday leading to more clouds and
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Overall the
current grids/zone forecast look on track with no morning updated
VFR conditions will prevail outside of any showers and
thunderstorms that develop this afternoon and evening which could
cause some MVFR/local IFR conditions. Northeast to east winds will
generally remain at 10 knots or less, but could see some gusts to
around 25 knots in convection. Thunderstorms in the vicinity mentioned at all taf sites
this afternoon and early evening as scattered thunderstorms will
develop and move westward across the area.
east to northeast winds will continue with a shift to northerly
near the coast this afternoon as the sea breeze tries to develop.
Evening surge will move westward shifting winds back to east
northeast and increasing speeds to around 15 knots during tonight.
Present marine forecast looks OK with no major changes planned.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 90 75 90 74 / 40 20 60 20
fmy 91 75 90 74 / 50 30 60 20
gif 90 73 89 73 / 50 20 60 10
srq 90 74 90 75 / 40 30 60 20
bkv 90 72 89 72 / 40 20 60 10
spg 89 76 89 76 / 40 30 60 20