Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
239 PM EDT Thursday Jul 28 2016
..much better chance of storms Friday afternoon and evening...
high pressure ridge axis lays across central Florida. Isolated
thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast sea breeze front were moving
northeast of the Williston area. Isolated showers and storms near
Naples were moving toward Fort Myers. Temperatures were 3 to 5
degrees above normal for this time of year with heat indices around
the norm of 100 to 107 f.
Short term (tonight-friday)...
isolated thunderstorms possible continue into the evening due to
boundary collisions, mostly from Polk through Lee counties.
Dry atmosphere today to rebound Friday with precipitable water
rising from 1.3 inches to around 2.0 inches. In addition, the low
level cap is forecast to weaken. Atlantic sea breeze front to
collide with Gulf sea breeze east of the 75 corridor from the
Brooksville area southward. High temperatures will be close to
normal due to rain cooled air.
isolated storms in far South Florida were moving toward Fort Myers
while other terminals has a small chance of storms after 20z. Storms
to persist into the evening with outflow boundaries coming back
toward the coast. Expect an increase in storminess Friday afternoon.
surface ridge axis will hold across the waters through the weekend.
This will keep winds below 15 knots with seas less than 4 feet
through the period. Main hazard will be mainly nocturnal and early
morning scattered thunderstorms which may produce locally gusty
winds a rough seas.
high dew points across west central and southwest Florida will
keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical
levels each day.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 80 90 79 92 / 10 40 10 40
fmy 77 92 78 92 / 30 50 10 40
gif 77 94 77 95 / 20 50 20 50
srq 79 89 78 90 / 20 30 10 30
bkv 76 92 74 94 / 10 40 20 40
spg 81 90 80 92 / 10 30 10 30
Short term/aviation/marine/fire weather...72/Noah
middle term/long term/decision support...74/Wynn