Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktbw 250729
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
329 am EDT Thu may 25 2017
Short term (today - friday)...
an amplified upper pattern sits over the eastern half of the U.S.
With deep troughing digging into the Gulf of Mexico. The upper low
and associated troughing moves northeast toward New England by
Friday morning which will allow weak upper ridging and a more quasi-
zonal pattern to set up over the area. On the surface, an occluded
low sits over Iowa while the triple point low moves off the mid-
Atlantic coast. The associated frontal boundary extends south just
west of Bermuda, then further southward over the Bahamas and
southern Florida. Behind this front, high pressure builds in over
the Gulf of Mexico bringing sunny skies and cooler conditions to the
area. The cool down on Thursday will be short-lived with average to
slightly above average temps expected by Friday and into the weekend.
Long term (friday night-wednesday)...
dry high pressure will be in place at the surface with an upper high
building in Saturday. Ridging at the surface and aloft will then
remain across the region through Wednesday with moisture gradually
moderating. An afternoon sea breeze will develop each day and
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
each afternoon for Monday through Wednesday. Highs will be near
normal through the period, with lows beginning near normal and
then rising above normal for Sunday night through Tuesday night.
overall VFR conditions are expected at all terminals for the next 24
hours, however some lingering cloudiness may produce some brief MVFR
conditions at some terminals overnight. Winds will remain gusty out
of the west-northwest through the next 12 hours, then decreasing to
around 10 knots. No other aviation impacts expected.
gusty Post-frontal westerly winds will continue over the coastal
waters through this afternoon. Winds will gradually decrease below
Small Craft Advisory level by mid morning and further decrease
through the day. High pressure builds into the Gulf of Mexico which
will produce lighter winds of 10 knots or less by early Friday and
persisting through the weekend. No other marine impacts expected.
high pressure builds into the area which will allow for rain-free
conditions and drier air to filter into the area. Humidity levels
over the interior will briefly dip below 35 percent on Friday, but
should be duration limited, so no red flag warning should be needed.
Humidity levels increase into the weekend with no other fire weather
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 82 68 86 71 / 10 0 0 0
fmy 85 70 90 72 / 30 0 0 0
gif 83 65 90 68 / 10 0 0 0
srq 82 69 84 71 / 10 0 0 0
bkv 83 59 88 60 / 10 0 0 0
spg 82 71 85 73 / 10 0 0 0
Florida...high rip current risk until 8 am EDT this morning for
coastal Charlotte-coastal Hillsborough-coastal Lee-
coastal Manatee-coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 am EDT this morning for
Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-coastal waters
from Bonita Beach to Englewood Florida out 20 nm-coastal
waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs Florida out 20 nm-
coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River
Florida out 20 nm-Tampa Bay waters-waters from Bonita
Beach to Englewood Florida out 20 to 60 nm-waters from
Englewood to Tarpon Springs Florida out 20 to 60 nm-waters
from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River Florida out 20 to 60