Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
249 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016
Short term (today and tuesday)...
a monstrous pinwheel cyclone is closing in on western Canada,
bringing widespread shower and thunderstorm activity to much of
the western conus, and likely snow in the higher elevations.
Further east across the central and Southern Plains, dominant
upper ridging is keeping things rather warm and dry. Strong
northwest flow continues across the Great Lakes and New England as
a series of shortwave troughs continues to emanate from central
Canada about a larger upper trough. Further south, along the Gulf
Coast, weak upper ridging continues as surface high pressure
For the rest of today, light northeast winds will continue with
perhaps a few afternoon clouds across the southern half of the
Florida Peninsula, where a shallow moist layer has advected
westward. Temperatures are expected to rise into the low 80s most
areas within a relatively dry airmass. This will make for very
Low level moisture will continue to recover overnight, allowing
dewpoints to rise, and maintaining low temperatures a few degrees
warmer than last night. This will result in overnight lows ranging
from the upper 40s north to the mid and upper 50s south.
For Tuesday, expect much of the same with mild afternoon
temperatures in the 80s and scattered clouds.
Middle/long term (tuesday night through monday)...
mostly dry and seasonal weather expected into next week as high
pressure will remain in control over the weather across the area.
The high centered to the north will maintain a predominant east to NE
wind flow through the extended. Evening wind surges look to push
winds to near Small Craft Advisory levels during the overnight hours and before
sunrise. Rain chances will be slim for most locations into next
week although a brief increase in moisture Friday into Saturday
across southern zones is expected so will keep mention of a 20
percent chance of showers. High temperatures will be in the lower
to mid 80s each day and lows will be low to mid 60s, near 70
around the immediate coast.
Aviation (18z tafs)...
VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period.
Scattered VFR cigs will be possible this afternoon and early
evening before skies clear. Light northeast winds to become
variable to calm overnight then increase again late Tuesday
breezy northeast winds will continue over the next day or so with
high pressure to the north. From Tuesday night through the end of
the week, high pressure will strengthen north of the waters,
leading to increasing easterly flow over the waters. This will
favor nocturnal easterly wind surges, which may bring periods of
cautionary to advisory level winds to the near and offshore
waters. Over the weekend, high pressure looks to shift southward,
with a weakening pressure gradient and lighter winds over the
areas north of I-4 will continue to see humidities of 35 percent
or less this afternoon. However, winds and ercs will remain well
below critical thresholds. From tomorrow through the remainder of
the week, low level moisture will continue to increase,
maintainingafternoon humidities above critical levels. This will
prevent any fire weather concerns through the weekend.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 62 82 67 85 / 0 0 0 0
fmy 63 83 67 85 / 0 0 0 0
gif 59 83 65 84 / 0 0 0 0
srq 62 83 66 85 / 0 0 0 0
bkv 52 84 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
spg 66 81 70 84 / 0 0 0 0
Florida...Beach hazards statement through Thursday evening for
Short term/aviation/marine/fire weather...84/Austin
middle term/long term/decision support...11/mckaughan