Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
749 am EDT Monday Jul 25 2016
brief MVFR/IFR conditions from developing shra/tsra may impact
the terminals after 17z, and have depicted thunderstorms in the vicinity for now otherwise
VFR will prevail. Southeast to south winds in the 6 to 9 knot
range can be expected with higher gusts in the vicinity of tsra.
VFR with light and variable winds will return to all terminals
after 02z tonight as the convection winds down.
Prev discussion... /issued 334 am EDT Monday Jul 25 2016/
Short term (today - tuesday)...
broad upper level ridging covering much of the southern Continental U.S. Is
currently marked by a TUTT low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
which will drift west and away from the area today. A second upper
level low farther to the south will follow close behind, moving
west across the Florida Straits and Cuba tonight and Tuesday. The
surface pattern has not changed significantly in recent days, with
the sub- tropical ridge continuing to stretch from the Atlantic
across northern Florida. As a result, generally southeasterly low
level winds will continue, favoring a sea breeze collision over
the western half of the Florida Peninsula. Scattered thunderstorms
will develop over the Florida Peninsula each day during the early
afternoon, then will diminish and shift west into the Gulf through
the evening hours.
Temperatures will remain near to a couple degrees above normal, with
highs in the low 90s, except for some upper 80s along the coast.
Lows tonight will range from the low 70s inland to upper 70s along
Long term (wednesday through next sunday)...
the middle and end of the week will find the Florida Peninsula
residing under a large swath of mid/upper level ridging. Varying
degrees of mid level dry air will be rotating around this ridge and
over our region through the long term period...although on average
the atmospheric column will be drier than normal for the end of
July. At the surface...the subtropical ridge will only meander
slightly north and south...with a general axis over the northern
half of the peninsula. Normally...with the ridge axis north of over
our northern areas...our rainfall patterns are active during the
afternoon and evening hours. However...with the drier air in
place...it is likely that convection coverage will at times be kept
down by the hostile atmosphere aloft. Highest rain chances each day
are likely to be down along the Suncoast...where the best low level
convergence between East Coast and West Coast sea-breezes will
provide enhanced updrafts to at least partially overcome the
negative factors aloft. However...even for these southern
zones...rain chances are likely to be below climo for a southeast
low level wind flow regime.
Temperatures are going to be on the hot side...especially for days
where convection is significantly reduced by the presence of the
upper ridge and drier air. Areas away from the immediate coast that
do not receive rainfall before the evening hours are likely to reach
the middle 90s most days. Overnight lows will run normal to slightly
above normal as well.
Toward the very end of the forecast period...Sunday into
Monday...there are some indications within the global guidance of a
westward migrating disturbance in the mid-levels that would act to
weaken or displace the upper ridge for a period. If this were to
verify...then an increase in diurnal storms would likely occur for
the second half of the upcoming weekend. However...next weekend is a
long way out in the forecast period...with plenty of time to watch
the pattern and adjust.
Marine... persistent surface high pressure over the northern Gulf
of Mexico will keep generally east to southeast winds in place
over the coastal waters through the next several days, except
where winds turn onshore near the coast with the afternoon sea
breeze. Winds and seas will generally remain light, although daily
thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally hazardous
relative humidity will remain well above critical levels through the
forecast period, with no significant fire weather concerns
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 88 77 91 78 / 50 30 40 20
fmy 90 76 93 76 / 50 30 40 20
gif 90 75 94 75 / 50 30 40 30
srq 88 77 91 79 / 40 30 30 20
bkv 89 73 93 73 / 50 30 40 20
spg 88 79 92 80 / 40 30 30 20