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fxus62 ktbw 290028 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
828 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Short term (rest of tonight)...
an upper low over the southern High Plains lifts up into the Central
Plains by Wed afternoon as a ridge from the eastern half of the Gulf
of Mexico to the upper Midwest shifts east...from FL to the upper
Great Lakes. Through Wed afternoon - a surface low tracks from
eastern nm to southern OK...with a cold front moving east across
Texas...and a nearly stalled frontal boundary stretching to the
southeast U.S. Coastal waters. Closer to home high pressure ridges
across FL from the Gulf to the Atlantic.

The ridging aloft and surface will dominate with a stable and
generally dry airmass. The evening radiosonde observation from tbw came with a
precipitable water of 1.05 inches with most of that in lower layers. There
are a few clouds this evening but these will melt away and
leave clear skies. However...there will be enough low level
moisture for patchy late night fog. The ridging continues
into Wed with a dry forecast and few to scattered clouds.
Afternoon onshore flow will give way to light and variable
winds for the overnight hours. Lows tonight around normal
with highs Wed above. Current forecasts on track.


29/00z-30/00z. VFR prevail for the next 24 hours except for limited
br toward fmy and rsw and with MVFR at lal and pgd. The
onshore afternoon flow is collapsing with light variable winds
overnight. Southeast to S winds pick up slightly late morning then shift to
SW to west for the afternoon.


onshore flow with the afternoon sea breeze is collapsing with winds
shifting back to easterly toward morning then shifting back to
onshore Wed afternoon. Speeds will be 10 knots or less.

A cold front approaches Thu night into Fri with an increase in
southerly winds to cautionary, possibly advisory levels, and a
potential round of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. Winds shift to west and northwest and diminish behind the
boundary Fri night and Sat.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 67 82 67 83 / 0 0 0 10
fmy 63 86 64 85 / 0 0 0 0
gif 63 88 65 88 / 0 0 0 10
srq 63 81 63 80 / 0 0 0 0
bkv 56 86 58 86 / 0 0 0 10
spg 66 82 69 82 / 0 0 0 0


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Gulf waters...none.

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