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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
155 PM EDT sun Jul 24 2016

..strong to severe storms possible this afternoon...

Short term...
for the rest of the afternoon expect showers and storms to
continue to rapidly develop within a moist an increasingly
unstable air mass. Cold dry air aloft associated with the upper
level low moving across the southern peninsula will support an
increased risk for some strong to severe storms with damaging
downburst winds and marginally severe hail a possibility. Slow and
erratic storm motion will also favor some locally heavy rains
along with frequent deadly lightning strikes.

Tonight the showers and thunderstorms will slowly wind down across
the forecast area after sunset as boundary interactions weaken
and loss of daytime heating occurs with convective debris
cloudiness gradually thinning out with skies becoming partly
cloudy overnight.

On Monday a weakening upper level low will be moving west northwest
over the Gulf of Mexico on the western side of the sub-tropical
upper level ridge over the Atlantic. As the remnant upper level
low moves further to the west deeper moisture will again be pulled
into the forecast area on a deep layered southeast wind flow
during the day with pw's approaching 2 inches by early afternoon.
This moisture coupled with daytime heating will support scattered
to numerous diurnal sea breeze driven showers and storms (pops in
the 50 to 60 percent range) across the region during the afternoon
and early evening hours. Warming mid level temperatures should
keep the threat for strong to severe storms low, however deep
moisture combined with slow and erratic storm motion will again
favor some locally heavy rainfall in some locations, along with
frequent deadly lightning strikes and some gusty winds.

Temperatures tonight and on Monday will remain a few degrees above
normal with lows tonight in the lower to mid 70s over inland
areas, and upper 70s along the coast, with daytime highs on Monday
climbing to around 90 along the coast, and lower to mid 90s
inland.

Long term (monday night - sunday)...
models in good agreement with somewhat small and weak mid to upper
ridging from the western Atlantic into the Carolinas Tuesday
sinking southward into the Georgia and SC low country by mid week
then broadening over the entire deep south and Florida by weeks end,
then slowly retracting into the Atlantic next weekend in response
to Great Lakes troughing.

At the surface weak western Atlantic Bermuda high pressure holds
and meanders over the region with a relaxed pressure gradient
and light low level steering flow.

Warm upper ridging and somewhat drier air aloft to keep diurnal
heating and sea breeze/outflow convection slightly below climo and
scattered in nature through much of the week. Temps to continue
near or several degrees above summertime normals area wide.

&&

Aviation...
brief MVFR/IFR conditions from shra/tsra may impact the terminals
through 02z and have handled with brief tempo groups through 22z
for now, otherwise thunderstorms in the vicinity should suffice. Outside of the convection
VFR will prevail. The coastal terminals will see southwest to west
winds at 7 to 10 knots the remainder of the afternoon with
southeast winds at 5 to 7 knots continuing at klal. Gusts up to 40
knots will be possible in the vicinity of tsra. VFR along with
light and variable will return to the terminals after 02z tonight
as the shra/tsra end across the region.

&&

Marine...
tranquil boating conditions will continue over the Gulf waters
tonight through the upcoming week as the ridge axis currently
across the Northern Peninsula slowly sinks south to be cross the
Central Peninsula by mid to late in the week. Light southeast to
south winds along with slight seas will prevail across the waters
through mid week, then as the ridge sink south a light southeast
to south wind flow can be expected from Venice south, while a
light south to southwest flow will develops further north with a
weak pressure pattern favoring an onshore sea breeze component
long the coast each afternoon. Wind and seas will be higher in the
vicinity of thunderstorms, otherwise no headlines are anticipated.

&&

Fire weather...
ample low level moisture combined with daily diurnal showers and
thunderstorms will keep humidity values well above critical levels
through the upcoming week with no fire weather issues expected.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 78 91 77 92 / 30 40 30 40
fmy 76 92 76 93 / 30 40 30 50
gif 75 93 75 94 / 30 50 30 50
srq 78 90 77 91 / 20 40 30 40
bkv 74 91 73 93 / 30 50 40 40
spg 80 90 79 91 / 30 40 30 30

&&

Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Gulf waters...none.
&&

$$

Short term/aviation/marine/fire weather...57/McMichael
middle term/long term/decision support...25/Davis

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