Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
636 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will remain
out of the east northeast less than 10 knots overnight, then
veering to the southeast tomorrow afternoon. No aviation impacts
Prev discussion... /issued 235 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016/
Short term (this afternoon - sunday)...
warming and benign conditions through Sunday ahead of unsettled
weather next week. Upper low continues to spin in the desert SW
this afternoon to slowly open and move eastward Sunday while upper
ridging amplifies into the deep south tonight to eastern Seaboard
Sunday. Surface high pressure north of the region to keep easterly
low level winds flow off the Atlantic with warming temps and
increasing dewpoints tonight and Sunday. Temps to return to above
normal levels with an increase in upper clouds Sunday.
Middle term/long term (sunday night-saturday)...
mid/upper level cutoff low moving across old Mexico and Texas Sunday
night and Monday will open up and move northeast across the
southeast states Monday night and Tuesday ahead of a developing
longwave trough. This trough will cross the central states midweek
and then and out into the Atlantic late in the week. Meanwhile at
the surface a low pressure system will take shape in the western
Gulf of Mexico Monday and move northeast across the southeast U.S.
Tuesday with abundant moisture being drawn northward ahead of it.
This return of deep moisture will lead to a slight chance to chance
of showers for Monday with best chances across the Nature Coast and
coastal waters. During Monday night and Tuesday the cold front
associated with this system will move toward the area leading to our
first decent chance of rain across the entire region in almost two
months. The front will move across the region late Tuesday and
Tuesday night bringing an end to the precipitation. However, another
cold front will move toward and across the region Thursday and
Thursday night associated with the longwave trough bringing a chance
of a few more showers. Behind this second front much cooler drier
air is expected to overspread the region to end the week.
VFR conditions continues with easterly winds.
periods of choppy seas and breezy winds creating hazardous marine
conditions continues this weekend and through next week.
Pressure gradient to again tighten with an easterly surge this
evening and overnight hours to again see scec elevated winds and
seas into Sunday. Winds veer more southerly Monday as storm system
M over through the deep south. Cold front to move through the
region with northwest winds and high pressure building into the region
mid week then another front to move through the region. All the
unsettled weather will keep hazardous marine conditions in the East
Gulf waters through the forecast period.
low level moisture will remain high with no fire weather concerns.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 77 64 81 69 / 0 0 0 10
fmy 80 64 82 69 / 0 0 10 10
gif 76 60 82 66 / 0 0 0 10
srq 77 63 81 69 / 0 0 0 10
bkv 76 57 82 66 / 0 0 0 10
spg 76 64 80 68 / 0 0 0 10
Florida...Beach hazards statement through Monday evening for coastal