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FXUS62 KTBW 201815

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
215 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SHORT TERM (This afternoon - Saturday)...
Strong upper ridge center to hold over the region through Saturday. 
Large surface high pressure centered over the Eastern U.S. to slowly 
move into the Western Atlantic Saturday. Breezy NE-E low level flow 
with overnight surges to continue into the weekend. Stacked ridging 
to keep temps warm and humid running 3 to 5+ degrees above seasonal
averages. Isolated to occasionally scattered low topped showers
over southern zones this afternoon to end this evening with reduced
rain chances Saturday.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night-Friday)...
Low level flow turns from east to southeast Sunday as high pressure
continues to move away from area. Moisture along and south of
the Florida Straits surges into the eastern Gulf of Mexico ahead
of an approaching cold front. Moisture and weak isentropic lift
will create rain chances from 20% in southwest Florida to 50%
Tampa Bay northward. The rain will be along the coast and offshore
Sunday night. Low level convergence ahead of the front will
have POPs Monday ranging from 60% offshore and 30-40% over land.
It will be warm and humid Sunday and Monday with temperatures
3 to 6 degrees above normal but no record highs expected. 

First real cold front of the season to move Monday night and 
Tuesday with rain and isolated thunderstorms likely. Models continue 
to forecast highs in the 70s Wednesday and Thursday then warming to 
around 80 Friday. Looking at lows in the 50s away from the coast 
Thursday and Friday mornings. Temperatures to be 5 to 10 degrees 
below normal Wednesday and Thursday.


VFR conditions expected to continue tonight and Saturday with gusty 
easterly winds.


5-6 mb gradient to hold over the E Gulf waters combined with easterly
surges to produce hazardous boating conditions through tonight
and will headline SCEC near shore to SCA offshore starting late
this afternoon. By Saturday, mid morning gradient slightly relaxes
to allow headlines to expire, but then another evening and overnight
surge to increase winds and seas Saturday night. Winds veer SE
Sunday then S Monday ahead of approaching cold front. Cold front
to sweep through E Gulf waters Tuesday with storms ahead of and
along front. High pressure to build into the region with increasing
NW-N winds and elevated NW seas mid week.


.FIRE WEATHER... Moist and breezy easterly winds will continue through 
the weekend. A cold front will move through the area Tuesday with 
showers and storms ahead of and along the front. Drier air to move 
into the area Wednesday.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  72  88  74  88 /   0   0  10  50 
FMY  73  87  74  88 /  10  20  10  20 
GIF  70  86  72  87 /   0  10  10  50 
SRQ  72  87  74  86 /   0  10  10  40 
BKV  67  88  71  88 /   0   0  10  50 
SPG  73  87  74  88 /   0   0  10  50 


Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for Waters 
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 
     60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL 
     out 20 to 60 NM.


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