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FXUS62 KTBW 221414

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
914 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

A wet day is on tap for west central and southwest Florida today. 
The morning sounding is showing a drastic increase in PW from 24 
hours ago. The 12Z sounding is showing a PWAT of 1.45 inches and a 
very moist column up to 300 MB. Radar is continuing to show rain 
showers and a stray thunderstorm stream into the area from the gulf 
coast. This is associated with a surface low along the Nature Coast 
and the frontal boundary extending south along the west coast of 
Florida. This trend will continue through the day. On a positive 
note, the cloudy skies will keep the temperatures cooler than what 
we have seen the past several days, but still a couple of degrees 
above average. Looks like the current forecast is looking fine for 
now, so will keep the rain chances around 60-90 percent region wide. 
Will make tweaks through the day if needed to adjust POPs based on 
radar coverage. 


22/12Z-23/12Z. Rainshowers have moved onshore and are being reported 
at all terminals this morning. This will continue through the day 
with MVFR ceilings expected, and some IFR visibility and ceiling 
restrictions possible in the heavier rain and isolated 
thunderstorms. The widespread rainfall will end between 03-06Z 
tonight, but some lingering clouds and an isolated shower could 
stick around through Thursday morning.  


Today will not be a good day for boaters to be out on the water. A 
frontal boundary is currently moving through the coastal waters and 
will continue through the day. A stray thunderstorm will also be 
possible. Winds will remain generally 15 knots or less and seas 3 
feet or less, except in heavier rainshowers and a stray storm. High 
pressure builds in across the area Thursday and continues until 
Saturday when a dry cold front sweeps across the Gulf...followed by 
slightly more robust high pressure on Sunday. 


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  73  62  78  65 /  80  70  30  10 
FMY  75  60  79  63 /  90  50  20  10 
GIF  74  60  78  62 /  80  60  20  10 
SRQ  74  60  76  63 /  90  60  20  10 
BKV  74  60  80  60 /  80  60  30  10 
SPG  72  62  76  65 /  80  70  20  10 


Gulf waters...None.

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