Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktbw 180941
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
441 am EST Mon Dec 18 2017
Short term (today-tuesday)...
mid/upper level ridging will remain over and just south of the
Florida Peninsula while surface high pressure off the southeast
U.S. Coast drifts back over the region Tuesday. This will continue
the generally fair dry weather with warm and muggy conditions
prevailing. Thanks to the abundant low level moisture, dew points
climbing into the 60s, we will see some late night and early
morning fog and some of this will become dense. Will continue to
monitor observations early this morning and may need to issue a
dense fog advisory shortly.
Middle term/long term (tuesday night-sunday)...
ridging at the surface and aloft will keep warm and dry conditions
in place across the area through Wednesday. An upper level
disturbance moving by just to the north of the region will then
allow for a weak front to settle into the northern half of the
area and bring 20-30 percent rain chances for Wednesday night and
Thursday. This washes out with ridging returning across the area
through the weekend. Temperatures will remain above normal through
the period with highs generally in the mid 70s to lower 80s each
day and lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s each night.
fog will continue to develop early this morning with some
IFR/local LIFR conditions expected. The fog will lift during
mid-morning with VFR conditions returning and persisting into
early tonight. Then more fog and low clouds are expected late
tonight into Tuesday morning.
high pressure off the southeast U.S. Coast will continue the
southeast flow across the region today with a shift to onshore
near the coast as the sea breeze develops during the afternoon.
This area of high pressure will ridge back across the region
through midweek, with winds gradually shifting from southeast to
southwest as a weakening cold front drifts into North Florida. No
headlines are expected for the next several days.
relative humidity values will remain above critical levels with no
fire weather issues expected through the week as plentiful moisture
remains across the region. Some fog will be possible late each night
into the early morning hours which could become locally dense at
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 81 65 81 66 / 0 0 0 0
fmy 84 65 84 64 / 0 0 0 0
gif 83 63 83 63 / 0 0 0 0
srq 82 62 81 63 / 0 0 0 0
bkv 82 58 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
spg 79 66 79 65 / 0 0 0 0