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fxus62 ktbw 231510 
afdtbw

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
1010 am EST Tue Jan 23 2018

Update...
a strong closed mid/upper-level low continues to move eastward across
the Great Lakes region this morning, with a steady southern stream
jet streaming across Florida within its circulation. At the surface,
an associated cold front is slowly making its way through the Florida
Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico, with a low-level south to
southwest wind flow in place across the region. Rainfall over the
past few hours has gradually shifted from the Tampa Bay region
southward and is now mostly over Charlotte and Lee counties. As far
as sea fog, not really seeing much out there. The middle Tampa Bay
observation briefly showed low visibility overnight but that has been
it. The potential is certainly still there, so will keep patchy
wording in the forecast and continue to monitor, though the area was
cut back a bit and now is just from Sarasota southward.

For the rest of the day, the cold front will slowly move southeast
across the peninsula, but will lose much of its support aloft. Will
leave a slight rain chance in the forecast for the afternoon hours
to account for some brief showers possible with the boundary itself,
but expect areal coverage and accumulations to be low. Once the
front moves through, the lower clouds should start to break up some,
with time sections showing this by around 18z for Tampa Bay. Having
said that, the mid/upper clouds will remain in place due to the
southern stream jet. Areas to the south likely will not see much
improvement in lower cloud cover before the end of the day. The
forecast has been updated to account for recent trends and
observations.

&&

Aviation...
an area of low clouds have started to impact the region, and all
sites can generally expect MVFR/IFR cigs through most of today. A
few showers will be possible this afternoon, but will stick with vcsh
to account for this possibility as any that do form are not expected
to have a large impact. The low cigs will improve around 00z for ktpa
and kpie, then later for ksrq and still later for the southern sites.
These will likely hold onto at least MVFR conditions through the 18z
forecast package, but will evaluate that further in the next few
hours.

&&

Marine...
a cold front will move through the region today and tonight, with
south to southwest winds turning more northward tonight. Periods of
exercise caution winds from the north and northeast can be expected
through much of the week behind the front.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 73 52 67 48 / 20 0 10 0
fmy 78 59 73 52 / 60 10 10 10
gif 78 52 70 48 / 50 0 10 0
srq 71 54 67 50 / 30 10 10 0
bkv 74 46 67 42 / 20 0 0 0
spg 73 52 67 49 / 20 10 10 0

&&

Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Gulf waters...none.

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