Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus62 ktbw 220024 
afdtbw

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
824 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Update...
coverage of showers and thunderstorms quickly quieted down
this evening around 6pm with the mostly rain-free conditions
over land at this time. Seeing some showers and storms over
the nearshore coastal waters this evening with the activity
slowly pushing towards the coast. Hi-res guidance keeps this
offshore in the near-term with activity diminishing over the
next few hours. Certainly possible however that some
convection gets going overnight and moves close to the coast
or even onshore so have bumped up pops some to include
mention of showers and storms through daybreak. Pops were
capped at 30 percent at this time however.

&&

Aviation...
VFR expected outside of any shra/tstms. Light S/SW flow
expected through the overnight becoming more westerly by
tomorrow afternoon. Early morning showers and tstms will be
possible in the morning hours with activity gradually
pushing inland during the day. Localized MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys
can be expected with any tstm activity.

&&

Marine...
a relaxed ridge of high pressure resides across the waters
into next week...with an axis that meanders across south
and central Florida. Winds and seas remain benign although higher
in the vicinity of thunderstorms...with the most likely
time during the overnight and morning hours.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 79 89 78 90 / 20 30 20 50
fmy 76 90 77 92 / 10 30 10 20
gif 75 91 75 91 / 20 50 10 50
srq 78 90 77 90 / 20 30 20 40
bkv 74 90 74 89 / 20 40 30 50
spg 80 88 79 89 / 20 30 30 50

&&

Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Gulf waters...none.
&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations