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FXUS62 KTBW 251336

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
936 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Not seeing as much CU develop this morning compared to
yesterday but we already have a few showers just off the
Pinellas and Manatee coast. The 12Z ROAB showing a little
higher PW then yesterday but the bigger difference from
yesterday is a weaker subsidence inversion in the mid 
levels. That should result in the inversion breaking down 
quicker as we heat up this afternoon allowing for better 
storm development through the day. The highest coverage 
should be east of I-75 during the late afternoon and early 
evening hours. 

The forecast on Monday is still looking on track. Weak
frontal boundary starts to sag south into Florida 
increasing moisture and bringing in cooler air aloft. This 
will help to bring widespread showers and storms across the 
area. Once again the best chance will be east of I-75 with 
POPs ranging in the 60%-70%. 


Expect VFR conditions for much of the day today. Only
exception will be after 17Z as shra/tsra develop over the 
region which could bring brief MVFR/IFR conditions. Winds 
will stay light and variable this morning shifting to a 
southwest to west direction around 5 to 10 this afternoon.


Surface high pressure will remain over the area bringing us
a  southeast to southwest flow for the next few days. With 
a weak pressure pattern supporting a typical summer 
afternoon for boaters with most showers occurring over land 
with heating of the day. However boaters should still watch 
out for a few storms in the gulf that could produce gusty 
winds and locally higher waves.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  91  78  90  77 /  40  10  50  30 
FMY  93  76  92  75 /  30  30  40  30 
GIF  94  76  92  74 /  50  40  70  50 
SRQ  89  76  89  76 /  20  10  30  20 
BKV  92  74  91  73 /  50  10  60  30 
SPG  90  79  90  77 /  30  10  40  20 


Gulf waters...None.

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