Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktbw 261327
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
927 am EDT Wed Jul 26 2017
..above normal temperatures today...
the main weather concern today will be hot temperatures.
Most stations are already reporting temps in the mid 80's
and will continue to heat up quickly over the next few
hours. Heat indices will approach 100 in some locations by
late morning with most of the region seeing 100-105 degree
heat indices through the afternoon. Things are relatively
quiet this morning on radar. The 12z upper air sounding is
showing very similiar conditions as what we saw 24 hours ago
with a precipitable water of 1.60 inches. Winds on the surface are light
with a predominant south-southwest flow, becoming east-
northeast in the upper levels. Surface high pressure in the
eastern Gulf of Mexico should keep a general onshore flow
later today, which would allow for the highest rain chances
over the inland counties later this afternoon, but still
only in the 20-30% pops range. Forecast looks good for now
with no changes needed.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period.
Tpa/pie/srq should remain rain free today, but will hold thunderstorms in the vicinity for
lal/pgd/fmy/rsw between 18z to 20z. Winds will remain light and
variable this morning, then turning on shore this afternoon, but
remaining less than 10 knots. No other aviation impacts expected.
surface high pressure will persist from the Atlantic west across the
south central Florida Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf through
the end of the week with light winds and slight seas continuing.
During the upcoming weekend a slight uptick in winds can be expected
across the central and northern waters as the gradient tightens some
as an amplifying upper level trough over the eastern U.S. Pushes an
attendant cold front toward the northern Florida Peninsula. Wind and
seas will be higher in the vicinity of thunderstorms, otherwise no
headlines are anticipated through the period.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 94 80 91 79 / 10 10 30 20
fmy 95 79 93 77 / 30 20 30 20
gif 95 77 94 76 / 30 30 50 20
srq 91 79 90 78 / 10 10 20 20
bkv 95 75 92 75 / 10 10 30 30
spg 92 80 91 79 / 10 10 30 20