Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktbw 251155
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
655 am EST Sat Feb 25 2017
prevailing IFR/LIFR cigs with a few lower vis spots will
continue through the next few hours. Thereafter, there is a
high probability of continued cig restrictions, though only
in the MVFR category through the late morning hours. VFR is
currently expected to return by early this afternoon,
although it should be noted that some model guidance keeps
MVFR conditions in place through mid to late afternoon.
Will continue to evaluate through the day.
Prev discussion... /issued 252 am EST Sat Feb 25 2017/
low clouds and fog will be around until shortly after sunrise as low-
level moisture will remain trapped near the surface this morning.
Another warm and muggy day, for February, is expected for your
Saturday with mostly sunny skies by the afternoon. A fast moving
cold front will be moving into the Panhandle by mid-morning. This
front will not have much moisture associated with it but it will
bring in some slightly cooler but significantly drier air into our
area for Sunday. No major fog concerns for Saturday night/Sunday
morning as drier air filtering in should limit any fog
at the start of the long range period, zonal flow will have become
established across much of the conus, with a few shortwave ripples
moving through the flow. This will set up a progressive flow
pattern, with several weak troughs and fronts moving across the Gulf
Coast and southern states.
During the first half of next week, upper flow will become more
southwesterly as a potent upper ridge expands across the central
Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. Surface high pressure will extend
across the western Atlantic, with east to southeast flow bringing
abundant low level moisture. A stable airmass from the surface into
the upper atmosphere will generally limit cloud cover and any chance
of rain. The end result will be several very warm and muggy days
from Monday through Wednesday. Afternoon high temperatures each of
these days will range from the low 80s along the Nature Coast, to
the middle and upper 80s across the remainder of the area. A few
locations may even reach the low 90s on Wednesday when the upper
ridge will be strongest.
A strong upper trough will surge across the Great Lakes into New
England late Wednesday into Thursday. A trailing cold front will
shift southeastward across the northern Gulf Coast and into the
Florida Peninsula during the day Thursday, moving through much of
the region by Friday morning. This will offer the next best chance
at more widespread rainfall, though the fast moving nature of the
system, and rapid invasion of drier air will likely limit the
potential for heavy rainfall. Behind the front, slightly cooler and
drier conditions can be expected as we wrap up next week.
IFR cigs associated with coastal stratus continue across the coastal
terminals this morning and this will likely to continue through
sunrise and a few hours beyond. Terminals away from the coast...lal,
pgd, rsw and fmy continue to report VFR conditions. Still expecting
some areas of fog to develop which could restrict vsbys at locations
over the next few hours. Wouldn't be surprised to see some lower
cigs at the interior terminals so have maintained MVFR cigs
beginning around 09z.
weak high pressure will persist across the area today before a cold
front pushes across the waters later this evening. Winds will become
northerly behind the front and increase to near Small Craft Advisory levels over the
Gulf. Increased winds will be short-lived before high pressure
builds back in over the area to start next week.
no fire weather concerns today as relative humidity values will remain above
critical levels. A cold front will move through the area Saturday
night with much drier air filtering into the region Sunday with
critically low min rhs over the Nature Coast but winds should remain
low enough to limit any red flag concerns.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 78 56 76 61 / 10 0 0 0
fmy 82 60 81 63 / 0 0 0 10
gif 82 56 77 58 / 10 0 0 0
srq 76 58 76 62 / 10 0 0 0
bkv 80 50 77 55 / 10 0 0 0
spg 77 59 76 62 / 10 0 0 0
Florida...Beach hazards statement through Monday evening for coastal