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fxus62 ktbw 240023 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
823 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

ample moisture (pw's near 2 inches) combined with enhanced
lift and low level convergence ahead of the first cold
front of the season supported areas of showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the forecast area during the afternoon
with 88d returns still showing a good deal of showers and
isolated storms continuing to move across the region this
evening, with some very heavy rainfall amounts being observed
over Pinellas County. With the main dynamics associated with
this system lifting out to the northeast, the front will
slowly move southeast the remainder of tonight approaching
the Nature Coast counties toward midnight, and then moving
south through the west central zones early on Tuesday, and
then finally clearing southwest Florida during late Tuesday
afternoon and evening.

Chances for showers and a few storms will continue along
and ahead of the front across central and southern zones the
rest of tonight, with rain chances gradually ending across
the Nature Coast after midnight, then during the early
morning hours across the Bay area, and across southwest
Florida during Tuesday afternoon as drier air works its way
into the region in the wake of the front. Temperatures
tonight will remain quite mild with lows in the upper 60s
across the Nature Coast, and lower 70s central and south.
Current forecast is in good shape so an evening update will
not be required at this time.

During Tuesday night into Wednesday much cooler and drier
air will advect into the region on a breezy northwest to
northerly wind flow in the wake of the front as high
pressure builds in over the Gulf and southeastern states
with cooler and drier weather expected to continue across
the area through Thursday with overnight lows falling into
the 50s Tuesday night, and upper 40s to lower 50s Wednesday
night with daytime highs on Wednesday and Thursday in the
lower 70s.


brief MVFR/IFR conditions will continue to impact the
northern terminal sites through early Tuesday morning, and
through early Tuesday afternoon across the southern
terminals as shra and a few tsra continue to impact the
region ahead of a cold front. Outside of the convection VFR
will prevail. South to southwest winds in the 7 to 10 knot
range tonight will gradually shift to the northwest and
north after 10z from ksrq north to ktpa, kpie, and klal, and
after 14z across the southwest terminals as the cold front
moves south through the region.


south to southwest winds in the 10 to 15 knot range over the
Gulf waters early tonight will shift to the northwest and
north later tonight through Tuesday as the cold front moves
south through the waters with speeds approaching cautionary
and small craft levels over the near and offshore waters
during Tuesday night into Wednesday. Ongoing forecast is on
track for the remainder of tonight so no changes are planned
in the next scheduled forecast issuance around 9 PM.


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Gulf waters...none.

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