Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktbw 261103
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
703 am EDT Fri may 26 2017
26/12z-27/12z. VFR under sky clear...although southern terminals
may see few cumulus/cirrus this afternoon. Light variable/NE winds
shift to onshore at 9kt or less for the afternoon and push
Prev discussion... /issued 409 am EDT Fri may 26 2017/
Short term (today - saturday)...
an amplified upper pattern sits over the East Coast with troughing
digging into the western Atlantic between the Carolinas and Bermuda.
The upper low and associated troughing moves northeast toward Nova
Scotia by Saturday morning which will allow weak upper ridging and a
more quasi-zonal pattern to set up over the southeast U.S. On the
surface, an occluded low sits over New England while the triple
point low moves south of Nova Scotia. The associated frontal
boundary extends south just west of Bermuda, then further southward
over the Bahamas and into the Florida Strait. Behind this front,
high pressure builds in over the Gulf of Mexico bringing sunny skies
to the area. The cool down we experienced on Thursday will be short-
lived with average to slightly above average temps expected by
Friday and into the weekend.
Long term (saturday night-thursday)...
dry high pressure will be in place at the surface and aloft to start
the period. Ridging will then remain across the region
through Wednesday with moisture gradually moderating. A cold
front will approach the state and stall just to the north
of the area for Thursday. An afternoon sea breeze will
develop each day and isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon for Tuesday
through Thursday. Temps will be near normal through Sunday,
and then rise above normal through the rest of the period.
high pressure builds into the Gulf of Mexico which will produce
lighter winds of 10 knots or less by early Friday and persisting
through the weekend. No other marine impacts expected.
high pressure builds into the area which will allow for rain-free
conditions and drier air to filter into the area. Humidity levels
over the interior will briefly dip below 35 percent on Friday and
Saturday, but should be duration limited, so no red flag warning
should be needed. Humidity levels increase into the weekend with no
other fire weather concerns expected.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 85 69 88 72 / 0 0 0 10
fmy 90 71 92 72 / 0 0 0 0
gif 89 66 94 69 / 0 0 0 0
srq 84 68 85 72 / 0 0 0 0
bkv 87 58 90 64 / 0 0 0 10
spg 85 71 87 75 / 0 0 0 10