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fxus62 ktbw 251336 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
936 am EDT sun Jun 25 2017

not seeing as much cumulus develop this morning compared to
yesterday but we already have a few showers just off the
Pinellas and Manatee coast. The 12z roab showing a little
higher precipitable water then yesterday but the bigger difference from
yesterday is a weaker subsidence inversion in the mid
levels. That should result in the inversion breaking down
quicker as we heat up this afternoon allowing for better
storm development through the day. The highest coverage
should be east of I-75 during the late afternoon and early
evening hours.

The forecast on Monday is still looking on track. Weak
frontal boundary starts to sag south into Florida
increasing moisture and bringing in cooler air aloft. This
will help to bring widespread showers and storms across the
area. Once again the best chance will be east of I-75 with
pops ranging in the 60%-70%.


expect VFR conditions for much of the day today. Only
exception will be after 17z as shra/tsra develop over the
region which could bring brief MVFR/IFR conditions. Winds
will stay light and variable this morning shifting to a
southwest to west direction around 5 to 10 this afternoon.


surface high pressure will remain over the area bringing US
a southeast to southwest flow for the next few days. With
a weak pressure pattern supporting a typical Summer
afternoon for boaters with most showers occurring over land
with heating of the day. However boaters should still watch
out for a few storms in the Gulf that could produce gusty
winds and locally higher waves.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 91 78 90 77 / 40 10 50 30
fmy 93 76 92 75 / 30 30 40 30
gif 94 76 92 74 / 50 40 70 50
srq 89 76 89 76 / 20 10 30 20
bkv 92 74 91 73 / 50 10 60 30
spg 90 79 90 77 / 30 10 40 20


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Gulf waters...none.

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