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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
811 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

early evening water vapor satellite imagery is showing
broad upper level cyclonic rotation across Florida and the
eastern Gulf of Mexico associated with the deep area of low
pressure that moved into the region today. The greatest
moisture visible on the water vapor imagery is now on the
north and east sides, which coincides with the majority of
the showers now positioned north and east of the Tampa Bay.
Through the next few hours, the highest rain chances in the
forecast area will be generally limited to the Nature Coast
and interior portions of west-central Florida but these
rain chances will gradually dwindle and continue to shift
east through the overnight hours. Into Thursday morning, the
current forecast looks on track with the best rain chances
remaining generally along and east of Interstate 75.

With the lingering low level moisture left behind from the
rain today, low stratus clouds are expected to develop
overnight and gradually lift out through Thursday morning.
Patches of fog cannot be completely ruled out, particularly
over southwest Florida and interior portions of west-
central Florida, but for the most part, overcast skies and
moderate wind speeds will prevent fog from developing.

Some minor changes have been made to the point and click
forecast to reflect the latest radar trends, and the zone
forecast will be updated shortly. No other changes planned
for the evening update.


showers will continue to linger in the vicinity of area
terminals for the next couple of hours, then drier
conditions will fill in overnight. Showers overnight and
into Thursday morning cannot be completely ruled out, but
confidence is not high enough to include mentions in the
tafs. Abundant low level moisture left over from the rain
will allow for MVFR or perhaps IFR ceilings to develop
mostly after midnight. Ceilings will generally lift out
after sunrise, but isolated MVFR ceilings will still be
a threat through late morning. Fog does not look as likely,
but with wet ground, a few patches of shallow fog may also
develop during the early morning hours and impact terminals
as well.


the large area of low pressure that brought numerous
showers into the area today will slowly continue to trek
east across the Florida Peninsula and into the Atlantic
tonight and Thursday. This will setup northeast to northwest
winds, generally less than 15 knots, but a brief surge is
expected over the Gulf waters Thursday afternoon, with winds
of 15-20 knots and seas of up to 4 feet expected. Calmer
winds and seas are then expected Friday into Saturday
morning, increasing slightly Saturday afternoon and evening
as a dry front moves in from the northwest.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 62 78 64 80 / 20 20 10 0
fmy 59 78 63 83 / 20 10 0 0
gif 59 78 62 83 / 50 40 10 0
srq 59 75 63 78 / 10 10 10 0
bkv 60 80 59 82 / 50 20 0 0
spg 62 76 65 79 / 20 10 10 0


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Gulf waters...none.

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