Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus62 ktbw 231404 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
1004 am EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

morning water vapor imagery shows an amplifying trough across the
west, high pressure over the central part of the country, and an
area of low pressure centered along the northern Gulf Coast/Florida
Panhandle region. At the surface, Maria is moving north-northwestward
over the western Atlantic while high pressure remains centered to our
north. This synoptic setup gives US an easterly low-level flow that
becomes southwest aloft.

For the rest of today, a Summer-like pattern will be in place with
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms generally moving east
to west. Current radar imagery already shows a few showers forming
over the East Coast and this will continue through the day, again
shifting westward over time. Some slight adjustments were made to the
ongoing forecast, but nothing major.


mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Winds
will generally be east to northeast with scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected this afternoon, generally moving from east to


high pressure to the north will keep an east to northeast flow
across the waters for the next several days with an overnight surge
to around 15 knots or so. The flow will lighten a bit starting
Sunday, which will allow the West Coast sea breeze to develop each


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 88 75 91 75 / 40 10 30 20
fmy 89 74 91 75 / 40 10 40 30
gif 87 73 91 73 / 40 10 30 10
srq 88 73 90 75 / 40 20 30 30
bkv 88 72 91 71 / 40 10 30 10
spg 88 76 89 76 / 40 20 30 20


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Gulf waters...none.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations