Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktbw 141924
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
224 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017
Short term (tonight - friday)...
a closed upper low sits over the northern Quebec with broad
troughing extending south through the western Atlantic. A more zonal
upper level pattern has set up over the Florida Peninsula and will
persist through the short term period. On the surface, high pressure
has moved over southern Florida which has caused a shift in the
winds to the south-southwest. Mostly rain-free conditions can be
expected once again on Friday with a continued warming trend with
the southerly component winds over the area. With the change in on-
shore south-southwest winds, this will also allow for an increase in
moisture to be advected over west central and southwest Florida.
This increase in moisture will allow for partly cloudy skies on
Friday as well, but most of the area should stay rain-free with only
a slight chance of showers over the coastal areas.
Middle term/long term (friday night - thursday)...
fast moving and dampening shortwave moves into the western Atlantic
pushing mainly dry surface frontal boundary through the area Fri nt
into Sat. Surface high pressure quickly building into the region
Saturday then into the west Atlantic sun with no significant airmass
change to keep temps near to slightly above normal through the
Upper ridging from the north Carib over the region and southeast-S low level
flow to bring warm and humid conditions back to the area early next
week with daytime temps around 80 degrees.
Next weeks system very similar to this weekends as shortwave now
looks to dampen out as it moves through the deep south with another
weak and mainly dry frontal boundary sliding through the area by mid
week then weak, not as warm, surface high pressure to end the
VFR will prevail during the next 24 hours. Scattered to broken cigs
around 5000 feet across all terminals can be expected today as low
level moisture increases across the area, with some additional
mid/high clouds around 10,000 feet streaming in from the Gulf. Light
and variable winds this morning will become southwest and increase
to 7 to 10 knots after 15z then diminish to around 5 knots or less
after 02z tonight.
high pressure has moved south of Florida which will be producing a
southwest wind flow over the coastal waters for the next couple of
days. A weak front moves through on Friday bringing a slight chance
of showers over the coastal waters. Winds will veer to the north and
then northeast behind this front on Saturday. High pressure settles
back into the area through Sunday and will produce an easterly
component wind over the coastal waters, but remaining 15 knots or
less by the beginning of next week. So outside of any shower
activity on Friday, the conditions over the coastal waters should be
favorable for any boating activities.
high pressure sits over southern Florida and is producing a
southerly component wind which has produced an increase in humidity
over the area. A weak front moves through the area on Friday
producing a slight chance of showers for some areas closer to the
coast. This combined with higher humidity values will preclude any
fire weather concerns through the period.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 61 73 57 73 / 20 10 0 0
fmy 55 75 57 77 / 0 10 0 0
gif 55 74 54 73 / 10 10 0 0
srq 60 72 57 72 / 20 20 0 0
bkv 55 74 51 71 / 20 10 0 0
spg 61 73 57 72 / 20 20 0 0