Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktbw 231838
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
238 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017
Short term (rest of today - friday)...
aloft North America early this afternoon - a robust low was
near The Four Corners region...a ridge reached from the
Mexican Gulf Coast to Hudson Bay...and a trough stretched
across the Atlantic from Labrador to the Bahamas. At the
surface - low pressure in the Central High plains had a
warm front across the Central Plains and a cold front
trailing down into northwest Mexico. High pressure centered
on the mid-Atlantic coast sprawled from eastern Canada to
much of the Gulf of Mexico...with a weak back door cold
front across south-central Florida.
Through the period - The Four Corners upper low moves to the
Central Plains while another low drops into northern Quebec
from the Canadian archipelago...with the eastern ridge
flattening and re-locating from the Gulf of Mexico to the
mid-Atlantic coastal waters. The western surface low and
frontal systems slide toward the Mississippi Valley. The
mid-Atlantic high pressure tracks east over the open
Atlantic while ridging back across the southeast U.S. And
into the Gulf of Mexico...with the Florida front exiting the
The most active weather is expected between now and around
sunset as the cold front traverses through and a subtle
short wave trough tracks across/down the East Coast of Florida.
Strong storms have been occurring on the East Coast the past
couple of hours and have tracking south. A few of the
storms may drift is across the area...especially the
interior and southern counties. Expect convection to end as
the front exits to the south and the upper ridge settles in
overhead. Dry and stable conditions dominate Fri although
there will be easterly flow...as the high center
departs...which will drag some low odds of showers into the
interior in the afternoon.
Middle/long term (friday night - thursday)...
an upper-level low and associated trough will lift northeast through
the mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys Friday night and Saturday, then
weaken as a new upper-level trough moves east from the Central
Plains on Sunday. This second trough could be just deep enough to
bring a weak cold front to North Florida by Monday night or early
Tuesday. In general, models are trending weaker and farther north,
so will not include any mention of rain with this feature. The upper-
level trough will move into the Atlantic on Wednesday with a ridge
building over Florida and the southeastern states on Thursday.
Temperatures will run several degrees above normal with highs
reaching the middle to even upper 80s each day...mainly away from
the coast. The airmass will be dry enough to allow temperatures to
fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s each night.
23/18z-24/18z. Cold front continues to push south across central Florida
with a mixture of thunderstorms in the vicinity/vcsh at all terminals until 00z-01z. Winds NE
to east-northeast and gusty...diminishing late night...then becoming easterly
and gusty again late morning.
cold front crossing the waters this afternoon will bring
some showers and thunderstorms with robust and gusty winds
filling in behind the front...small craft exercise caution
and Small Craft Advisory will be in place overnight. High
pressure dominates with easterly flow and evening surges
into the weekend. Then the high settles south with a
relaxing gradient...allowing winds to veer and diminish.
a weak cold front moves through this afternoon with showers
and thunderstorms. Then high pressure builds with limited
rainfall...a few showers may drift in from the east in the
afternoons. Relative humidity will drop to near but not
reach critical values over the next few days.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 61 79 62 81 / 10 0 0 10
fmy 62 80 61 83 / 10 10 0 10
gif 59 78 59 83 / 10 0 0 10
srq 61 77 61 79 / 10 0 0 10
bkv 58 78 56 82 / 0 0 0 10
spg 62 78 64 80 / 10 0 0 10
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 3 am EDT
Friday for waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood Florida
out 20 to 60 nm-waters from Englewood to Tarpon
Springs Florida out 20 to 60 nm-waters from Tarpon Springs
to Suwannee River Florida out 20 to 60 nm.