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fxus62 ktbw 190126 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
826 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Evening update...
another night of light and variable to calm winds is on tap.
This will lead to conditions favoring fog late tonight into
early Thursday. Dense fog will be possible across parts of
the Nature Coast and interior sections of northern Florida.
The fog will lift rather quickly Thursday morning as surface
heating gets underway.

No major changes were needed to the existing forecast. Only
tweaked hourly sky coverage grids to depict area of dense
high clouds over northern Florida.


Aviation (00z tafs)...
another night of VFR conditions is expected with patchy fog
developing in the 08z to 09z hour. Fog may be locally
dense, especially at more fog prone locations such as klal
and kpgd. Fog will dissipate quickly after sunrise with
scattered VFR cigs and winds shifting from southeast to
southwest during the afternoon hours.


high pressure remains centered over the Gulf waters. This
will maintain light and variable winds shifting onshore
during the afternoon hours with the seabreeze. From Saturday
into Sunday, a strong cold front will approach the region,
bringing the potential for widespread thunderstorms. Strong
gusty winds will overspread the waters in the wake of the
front, potentially leading to a prolonged period of advisory
level winds and seas. Winds and seas look to gradually
improve late Monday into Tuesday of next week as high
pressure slowly build back in over the Gulf.


Fire weather...
a moist airmass will remain in place into the first half of
the weekend, preventing humidities from falling to near
critical levels. A strong cold front is expected to bring a
wave of showers and thunderstorms late Saturday into Sunday,
along with much stronger winds shifting from south to west
as the front passes. Despite strong Post frontal winds, it
appears humidities will generally remain high enough to
prevent and fire weather concerns at this time.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 63 78 63 78 / 0 0 10 10
fmy 60 81 61 81 / 0 0 0 10
gif 59 81 61 81 / 0 0 0 10
srq 59 77 60 77 / 0 0 10 10
bkv 55 80 58 79 / 0 0 10 10
spg 63 76 63 76 / 0 0 10 10


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Gulf waters...none.

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