Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktae 251742
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
1242 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017
Aviation [through 18z sunday]...
VFR conditions prevail at all terminals this afternoon, and will
continue through the taf. The back edge of VFR ceilings associated
with a cold front will clear tlh and then vld in the next couple
of hours. A brief shower remains possible at vld. Gusts around 15
to 20 knots area-wide will continue until closer to sunset.
Previous discussion [1007 am est]...
Near term [through today]...
A cold front will move through the tri-state region through
the day. Ahead of it, a broken line of scattered showers will
produce essentially negligible quantitative precipitation forecast. Skies will quickly clear in
the wake of the front, with highs climbing to around 70 degrees
along and northwest of a line from Albany through Panama City,
and reaching the mid to upper 70s to the southeast.
Short term [tonight through monday]...
At the beginning of this period, our area will experience dry
conditions as zonal flow aloft prevails over the southeastern
conus, along with a broad area of high pressure at the surface. As
the high gradually drifts eastward, moisture will increase as
easterly flow through Sunday becomes southeasterly Monday morning,
then southerly during the afternoon hours. As this occurs, precipitable water
values will increase, especially over our western areas to around
1.5" during the afternoon. Also, isentropic lift will increase
during this time, and modest instability will be present with a
few hundred j/kg of SBCAPE developing. Therefore, included chances
of showers and isolated thunderstorms for most of our area Monday
afternoon and early evening, with best chances across the Florida
Panhandle and southeast Alabama.
Seasonable temperatures are expected on Sunday, with morning lows
in the upper 30s/lower 40s and highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s.
Milder conditions are expected Monday, with morning lows ranging
from the mid-upper 40s inland to 50s along the coast, and highs
from the lower-upper 70s across our area.
Long term [monday night through saturday]...
A warm, generally moist pattern will continue through the early
and middle portions of this week, as a low-amplitude upper ridge
builds over the eastern Continental U.S. And southerly flow persists at the
surface. Periods of modest instability and isentropic lift will
result in continued chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms
for parts of our area from Monday night through Wednesday night,
with highest chances on Wednesday night as a cold front moves
southeastward through our area. Due to model timing differences
with the front, left a slight chance of showers on Thursday to
account for the slower solutions, but dry conditions are expected
behind the front through the end of this period. Unseasonably warm
conditions will occur until the front passes through; highs in the
lower-mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday, lows generally in the lower
60s. Temperatures closer to average for this time of year will
return from Thursday through Saturday, with highs in the 70s and
upper 60s, and lows ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Winds will become northwesterly and then northerly from 15 to 20
knots today through tonight as a cold front moves through our
area, and seas of 2 to 4 feet are expected. At these levels,
small craft should exercise caution. Winds and seas should remain
elevated through Sunday and Monday, and then become southerly 10
to 15 knots from Tuesday through Wednesday with seas of 2 to 3
A cold front will move through today bringing dry air to the tri-
state region this afternoon and tomorrow.
Alabama/Georgia...winds will be elevated today with borderline winds
across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia and while relative humidity values
will drop into the mid to upper 20s this afternoon, fuel moistures
will preclude meeting red flag warning criteria today. Relative humidity values
will drop into the low 20s to teens for Sunday, however winds will
be below critical thresholds tomorrow.
For Florida, relative humidity values will drop to critical thresholds today across
the Panhandle however duration criteria will not be met. Winds are
forecast to be shy of criteria with lower erc values. For Sunday, relative humidity
criteria is met however, given current erc values, it does not
appear red flag warning criteria will be met, but this will need to
be monitored closely.
The Apalachicola River at Blountstown has crested in action stage
and is currently falling tonight. The Choctawhatchee is still
rising in Florida from Caryville through Bruce, but it is expected
to remain in the action category through this weekend. With no
widespread heavy rainfall expected through the next 5 days, there
are no river flood concerns.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 40 72 48 77 60 / 0 0 0 20 20
Panama City 46 68 56 72 64 / 0 0 0 40 20
Dothan 37 68 46 73 61 / 0 0 0 50 30
Albany 37 68 45 74 60 / 0 0 0 30 30
Valdosta 40 70 46 78 60 / 0 0 0 20 10
Cross City 42 73 49 79 60 / 0 0 0 20 10
Apalachicola 46 67 56 73 64 / 0 0 0 20 10