Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
755 PM EDT sun Jul 24 2016

Update...

Lingering scattered convection across portions of south-central
Georgia and the Florida Big Bend will gradually diminish through
the evening hours. Updated pops to try to match near term radar
trends, otherwise no significant changes were made to the previous
forecast.

&&

Aviation...

[through 00z tuesday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail,
although some scattered convection is expected to persist near vld
through 01z-02z this evening. Isolated to scattered convection
is expected across the area on Monday with the highest chances
near ecp.

&&

Previous discussion [335 PM edt]...

Near term [through tonight]...

A tropical upper tropospheric trough (tutt) lies over the Southeast
Florida coastline with a broad mid and upper level ridge covering
most of the southern Continental U.S.. the mid and upper level ridge, which has
been in place for a few days now, has worked some dry air into the
mid levels as can be seen in our ktae soundings yesterday and today.
This dry mid-level air is expected to suppress sea-breeze driven
convection somewhat over southwest Georgia and inland portions of The
Big Bend. Off to the west over southeast Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle, however, enough moisture and instability will be on tap
to allow continued development of scattered thunderstorms through
the evening hours. Storms over land will diminish shortly after
sunset, but convection over the water is expected to continue
between the nocturnal land-breeze and enhanced divergence aloft as
the TUTT drifts westward and into the eastern Gulf waters. Lows
tonight will be in the mid 70s, upper 70s along the immediate
coastline.



Short term [monday through Tuesday night]...

A TUTT low will continue to move westward over the northern Gulf of
Mexico on Monday, helping enhance convection across mainly the
western portions of the forecast area where moisture will be more
prevalent. Mid-level and upper level dry air will be pulled westward
into the region along the northern periphery of the low which will
supress convection across the eastern half of the forecast area
during the day tomorrow. As a result, probability of precipitation will generally run in the
20% range in these locales, with 30-50% generally west of tlh.
Tuesday, the aforementioned low will have moved west of the area,
yielding southerly flow and allowing deep layer moisture to advect
into the area once again. Precipitable waters will rebound from monday's 1.4-1.8"
values to roughly 2" area-wide on Tuesday. As a result, higher
convective coverage is expected on Tuesday, with most areas
currently in the 30-50% range.

Afternoon highs will generally run in the lower to mid 90s with heat
indices ranging from the mid 90s to 100f.



Long term [wednesday through sunday]...

Deep layer ridging will return to the area on Wednesday as the
Bermuda high builds back westward into the region. This will spell a
return to our normal summertime pattern, with convection affection
portions of the region each afternoon. Operational model guidance
remains consistent for now in indicating another push of drier
mid/upper level air moving over the region toward the end of the
week. If this comes to fruition, this will yield less coverage of
convection on these days, thus the grids reflect only slight chances
for thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday. Expect near or just
above average temperatures for late July, with mid 90s inland and
lower 90s near the coast for highs and mid 70s inland and upper 70s
near the coast for lows.



Marine...

Generally light winds will persist through the next week generally
resulting in seas of 2 feet or less. Showers and thunderstorms will
be greater in coverage across coastal waters Monday and Tuesday
before becoming more isolated for the latter part of the week.



Fire weather...

Other than high dispersion values across the Florida Big Bend on
Monday afternoon, hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected
over the next several days.



Hydrology...

No widespread flooding concerns are anticipated through the period.
However, isolated/localized flooding can't be ruled out early this
week with increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms and weak
steering flow in place across the region.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 74 93 75 91 75 / 10 30 10 40 10
Panama City 77 89 78 87 79 / 10 40 20 50 10
Dothan 73 94 74 92 74 / 10 40 10 50 10
Albany 74 95 74 94 74 / 10 20 10 30 10
Valdosta 73 94 74 93 74 / 50 20 20 40 10
Cross City 73 93 74 92 75 / 50 20 20 30 10
Apalachicola 76 89 78 88 78 / 20 40 20 40 10

&&

Tae watches/warnings/advisories...

Florida...none.
Georgia...none.
Alabama...none.
GM...none.

&&

$$

Update...dvd
near term...Moore
short term...pullin
long term...pullin
aviation...dvd
marine...pullin
fire weather...dvd
hydrology...pullin

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations