Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktae 261924
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
324 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017
Near term [through tonight]...
With an upper low situated over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the
County Warning Area between a surface ridge to the west over the central Continental U.S. And
Maria to the northeast, the County Warning Area will remain under northerly flow
both at low levels and aloft. This will continue to filter dry air
into the County Warning Area and thus precipitation is not expected through tonight.
Lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Short term [wednesday through Thursday night]...
The overall pattern directly aloft of our area will remain largely
unchanged through Wednesday night with the exception of Maria
lifting northeastward. Deep layer northerly flow will persist over
the area, keeping local weather warm and dry. On Thursday, the upper
low will drift westward into the central Gulf, bringing an easterly
return flow of Atlantic moisture aloft, which will increase upper
level cloudiness, but will not increase rain chances. Daytime
temperatures will be toasty in the low 90s Wednesday and Thursday
and nighttime temperatures will be in the low 70s.
Long term [friday through tuesday]...
An upper level +pv anomaly will swing through a progressive trough
over the Great Lakes, moving across the northeast, and amplifying
the trough as it moves through Saturday night. Meanwhile the upper
low in the central Gulf will dissipate as it drifts southeastward.
Early next week, a weak shortwave trough will move over the
southeast. At the lower levels, a large surface ridge will move
eastward across the central and eastern Continental U.S.. expect low end
chances for showers and thunderstorms (20-40%) through the weekend
and early in the week, with the highest chances over the eastern Florida
Big Bend, where atmospheric moisture will be highest. Highs will be
in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows will be in the 60s to low
Aviation [through 18z wednesday]...
VFR conditions are expected through the taf period. Few-scattered 4-5kft
clouds are possible this afternoon and again tomorrow. Winds will be
light around 5 knots or less.
Light winds and low seas will prevail through Saturday. As the
surface pressure gradient tightens Saturday night, winds speeds
will increase, driving up wave heights.
Dry conditions will continue for the next several days across the
region. However, relative humidity values will remain above critical
All of our area rivers are below flood stage at this time. There is
no widespread rainfall forecast for the next several days, so no
flooding is expected.
Spotter information statement...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting US @nwstallahassee.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 70 93 70 94 71 / 0 0 0 10 0
Panama City 73 88 74 89 74 / 10 0 0 10 0
Dothan 68 92 69 92 70 / 0 0 0 10 0
Albany 68 92 70 93 71 / 0 0 0 10 0
Valdosta 68 92 68 93 69 / 0 0 0 10 10
Cross City 69 92 70 92 71 / 0 0 0 10 0
Apalachicola 72 89 73 89 73 / 10 0 0 0 0