Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
730 am EDT Sat Jul 30 2016
Aviation [through 12z sunday]...
VFR conditions should generally prevail through the period at all
terminals. Any exceptions (possible brief MVFR/IFR visibility
reductions) could occur with scattered showers and thunderstorms,
mainly around ecp this morning and possibly across our area this
afternoon and early evening. Any showers or storms will likely
end by sunset tonight, with dry conditions persisting through
early Sunday morning.
Previous discussion [258 am edt]...
Near term [through today]...
deep layer moisture has increased across the area compared to 24
hours ago with satellite and sounding derived pwats approaching 2
inches across the area. Although the synoptic environment hasn't
changed much, this additional moisture is expected to result in a
slightly higher coverage of convection today compared to the past
couple of days. Both the NAM and the GFS increase pwats to just over
2 inches by late this afternoon across the western half of the area.
The GFS gridded MOS pops look a little too low for this afternoon at
30% given the expected moisture profile, as do the GFS surface
dewpoints, which mix out into the mid to upper 60s across the area
by this afternoon. The dewpoints aren't likely to get that low given
the expected pwats. This has been a common theme this Summer and
probably partially explains why the gridded GFS MOS pops have run
low at times. The hrrr also appears to be erroneously mixing out
dewpoints at the end of its runs for this afternoon with low to mid
60s dewpoints forecast across southern Georgia and southeast
Alabama. This will cause it to underforecast convective coverage for
this afternoon as well. The official forecast went closer to the
local ensemble of cams pop forecast for today, which is near 50%
across a large area. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be
in the mid 90s across most of the area, except near 90 along the
beaches. Peak heat index values are mostly expected to be in the 101-
106 degree range.
Short term [tonight through monday]...
deep layer ridge will remain in place across the local forecast
area into early next week. With minimal synoptic scale forcing,
afternoon convection will largely be driven by the seabreeze, with
pops a little below climo given the proximity of the upper ridge.
Temperatures will continue to be above normal with highs in the
mid to upper 90s.
Long term [monday night through saturday]...
deep layer ridge will remain in place along the northern Gulf
Coast through much of next week. Typical Summer weather will
continue with hot afternoons (lower to mid 90s) and scattered
high pressure over the coastal waters will keep light winds and
low seas in place into early next week.
hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
no hydrology concerns through the weekend.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 95 76 96 76 94 / 50 20 40 20 50
Panama City 89 79 90 79 90 / 50 10 20 10 30
Dothan 94 75 95 74 93 / 50 20 40 30 50
Albany 97 76 96 75 95 / 50 20 40 30 50
Valdosta 96 75 97 74 95 / 30 20 40 20 50
Cross City 95 75 95 75 93 / 30 20 30 20 40
Apalachicola 90 78 91 77 90 / 40 10 20 10 30