Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktae 251045
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
645 am EDT Sat Mar 25 2017
Aviation [through 12z sunday]...
VFR conditions are expected. Rain showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms will approach southeast Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle in the late afternoon and evening hours. Light rain will
continue overnight for dhn, ecp, and aby. Southerly winds will be
gusty today especially near dhn and ecp.
Previous discussion [333 am edt]...
Near term [through today]...
In the upper levels a cut-off low will be over MO today. The
associated trough will move through the region overnight. At the
surface a low over MO will slowly move northeast. The associated
cold front will stay well to our north. As the trough moves across
MS and Alabama a line of strong to severe thunderstorms will likely
develop. This line will likely weaken before it gets to this region
as the surface cold front weakens and daytime heating ends. Showers
and a few thunderstorms are likely in the late afternoon and evening
hours mainly in the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama (where
cape up to 900 j/kg is expected). Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk outlined
west of a line from Dothan to Panama City.
Southerly winds will be somewhat gusty today particularly in the
Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama. Highs will be in the upper
70s in areas with more cloud cover (southeast Alabama and Florida
panhandle). Highs will be near 80 elsewhere.
Short term [tonight through monday]...
Line of thunderstorms will make it into the western parts of the
County Warning Area in the evening hours. Instability will decrease rapidly around
sunset and thereafter with deep layer shear around 30-40 knots.
With the marginal risk outlined above, there is a slight
possibility of strong to locally damaging winds across southeast Alabama
and the western Florida Panhandle early in the evening. The line
continues to weaken with time becoming more isolated early Sunday
morning. The mid level trough swings through Sunday morning but
enough moisture may hang around for isolated showers into Sunday
afternoon. Sunday night will be dry and in-between systems. Monday
will bring a fast moving system across the Mississippi River
valley bringing a chance for showers across southeast Alabama and SW
Georgia Monday afternoon. Highs for this period will mainly be in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Long term [monday night through saturday]...
The early work week system will drag a cold front into the County Warning Area
which will stall across the area Tuesday and Wednesday. This will
serve as a focus for showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop
Wednesday before the front moves back north as a warm Wednesday
night. Thursday appears dry and in-between systems with the next
system impacting the area Thursday night into Friday. This system
bears watching as it will have better support with it as opposed
to the system earlier in the week.
Winds and seas will remain elevated today as a low pressure system
moves towards the area. This system will weaken through the day so
winds will be slowly decreasing into the afternoon hours.
Conditions will improve beginning Sunday with light to moderate
southeast winds and decreasing seas.
Relative humidity values will stay above red flag criteria for the next several
days. Rain chances will increase late this afternoon in western
parts of the region.
Area rivers are well below flood stage currently. Storm total
rainfall associated with the next system will be around an inch or
less and the heaviest of these amounts will favor southeast Alabama and
the western Florida Panhandle. No flooding is expected with this
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 79 59 80 58 82 / 10 30 20 0 10
Panama City 73 65 75 63 75 / 30 50 20 0 10
Dothan 78 61 80 61 81 / 40 50 30 10 10
Albany 80 61 82 60 83 / 20 40 30 10 20
Valdosta 81 59 82 58 83 / 10 20 30 10 20
Cross City 81 59 81 57 81 / 10 20 20 0 10
Apalachicola 75 63 76 61 76 / 20 40 20 0 10
Florida...high rip current risk through this evening for coastal Bay-south