Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
227 am EDT Tue Jun 27 2017
Near term [through today]...
The stalled front remains just to our south. This area of
moisture combined with typical sea breeze forcing will allow for
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. With drier air in southeast
Alabama, convection should be limited to the Florida zones and parts of
SW Georgia. Pops will be 40-60% in these areas. Widespread cloud cover
will keep highs in the upper 80s.
Short term [tonight through thursday]...
Some drier air across the northern half of the area will tend to
suppress convection there through Wednesday with pops below
average for this time of year. However, there will still be
decent moisture and the seabreeze to support scattered afternoon
convection across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend as well as
adjacent areas of southern Georgia. By Thursday, deep layer
moisture is expected to increase with a return to seasonal
scattered convection areawide. High temperatures will generally
range from the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows mainly in the
Long term [thursday night through tuesday]...
Seasonal chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue each day through the period with pops in the 40-50% range.
Scattered convection areawide. Seasonal temperatures are expected
as well with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and
overnight lows in the lower 70s.
[through 06z wednesday] MVFR cigs are expected at vld after 10z
this morning. Showers and thunderstorms are possible starting
around 16z at tlh and vld. Included prob30 for these chances with
MVFR for reduced visibility in thunderstorms.
A typical summertime pattern will persist with daily chances of
showers and thunderstorms and low winds and seas outside of
There are no fire weather concerns as relative humidity will stay above critical
thresholds for the next several days.
Most of our area rivers have receded in after a round of heavy rain
last week. A few points along the Choctawhatchee River remain in
action stage, but are not expected to rise to flood stage.
Scattered storms will be possible the next few days in the Florida Big
Bend and south central GA, but rainfall totals will generally be
below an inch. No flooding is anticipated for the next several
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 88 71 90 73 87 / 40 10 30 30 50
Panama City 86 74 84 75 84 / 30 10 30 30 50
Dothan 87 70 90 72 84 / 10 0 30 20 50
Albany 89 70 90 72 87 / 20 0 20 10 50
Valdosta 88 70 89 72 88 / 50 10 20 10 50
Cross City 86 71 89 72 88 / 60 30 50 20 50
Apalachicola 84 74 85 76 85 / 40 20 30 30 50