Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
928 PM EDT Friday Jul 29 2016
Minor tweaks were made to pops over the Gulf, otherwise, updates
were not necessary to tonight's forecast.
Previous discussion [754 PM edt]...
Near term [through tonight]...
Deep layer high pressure remains in place over the Gulf Coast
region, with no discernible upper level forcing present around our
area. However, very moist air is currently present from the Florida
Panhandle southward into the northeastern Gulf, with precipitable water values
near 2" this afternoon. Moisture is expected to continue to surge
northward later this afternoon and early evening with southerly
flow, and this will be accompanied by the sea breeze front as it
moves inland. As a result, ongoing scattered showers and storms
should persist and possibly expand in coverage during the next few
hours, mainly across the Panhandle and into southeast Alabama and far SW
Georgia. Some showers and storms will likely push into the western
Florida Big Bend region as well, although coverage will likely be more
sparse than areas farther west since less moisture is present.
Farther east, only isolated showers/storms are expected due to a
pocket of dry air at mid levels.
Heat indices generally in the 100-105 range (isolated locations
could be slightly higher) will persist through the afternoon and
early evening in areas that don't receive rain, with inland highs
generally in the mid-upper 90s. Lows tonight will be in the mid 70s
inland, with upper 70s to near 80 expected along the coast.
Short term [saturday through Sunday night]...
Deep layer ridging will remain in place over the southeast through
Sunday night, with a mid-upper level trough sliding eastward to our
north across the middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. As this
trough swings eastward, precipitable water values over our area will slowly climb to
2" or greater by Saturday evening. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms Saturday will be similar to today with the best
chances over the Florida Panhandle and southeast Alabama, where
the most moisture is present. Pops will return to climatological
normal on Sunday, 30- 40%. Maximum temperatures will be in the low
to mid 90s, but apparent temperatures will again be in the
100-105 range. Minimum temperatures will be in the mid 70s.
Long term [monday through friday]...
A series of upper level troughs will continue to swing through the
northern half of the Continental U.S. With a broad, Flat Ridge over most of the
southern Continental U.S.. at the lower levels, the southeast will remain on
the western edge of a ridge of high pressure, allowing continued
southwesterly flow. With persistent low level moisture and onshore
flow, daily seabreeze thunderstorms are expected. Highs will be in
the low to mid 90s and lows will be in the mid 70s.
Aviation [through 00z sunday]...
A brief ts will be possible at vld over the next hour, otherwise
VFR will prevail through the taf. The best chance for showers and
storms will be at ecp, dhn, and tlh tomorrow afternoon.
High pressure over the eastern Gulf will allow light winds and seas
to persist for the next several days.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days. Winds will be light and relative humidity values will remain well
above critical thresholds.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected for the next
several days, but widespread heavy rainfall is not anticipated.
Rivers should remain at their normal levels.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 76 95 75 95 75 / 10 30 10 30 20
Panama City 80 89 79 89 79 / 20 30 10 30 20
Dothan 74 93 74 93 74 / 10 30 20 40 30
Albany 74 96 75 95 75 / 10 30 20 40 30
Valdosta 73 96 74 96 74 / 10 20 10 30 30
Cross City 75 94 76 94 76 / 10 30 20 30 30
Apalachicola 78 91 76 91 77 / 20 20 10 20 20