Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktae 180737
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
237 am EST Thu Jan 18 2018
Near term [through today]...
After a cold start this morning, clear skies and a dry airmass are
expected to allow for high temperatures to reach into the mid 40s to
lower 50s across the tri-state region with light northerly winds
Short term [tonight through saturday]...
An upper level trough will remain in place over our area tonight
as the core of a strong surface high continues to build eastward
over our area. As clear skies prevail along with winds becoming
light to calm, temperatures will drop quickly tonight through
early Friday morning. Went on the low side of model guidance due
to very favorable radiational cooling conditions; widespread lows
in the lower 20s are expected inland with mid-upper 20s along the
As the trough moves east of our area, a more split upper level
flow pattern will develop over the eastern Continental U.S. On Friday and
Saturday. A ridge will amplify in the northern branch of the jet
as the subtropical branch remains quasi-zonal over the Gulf of
Mexico. High pressure will remain in place at the surface, so
despite an embedded mid-upper level shortwave pushing eastward
across our area on Saturday, dry conditions and a gradual warming
trend will occur through this period. Highs will warm into the 50s
on Friday and lower-mid 60s on Saturday.
Long term [saturday night through thursday]...
A highly amplified upper level ridge will continue to build
eastward over our area through Sunday, and high pressure will
remain in place at the surface. As thicknesses increase, the
warming trend mentioned in the short term discussion will continue
with highs reaching the upper 60s across our area. Rainfall
chances will increase Monday as a strong upper trough and surface
cold front move eastward across our area. Just ahead of the front,
another warm day is expected with highs near 70. However, little
to no instability is anticipated at this time, so thunderstorms
are not currently expected along with the rain. Behind the front,
slightly cooler air will return to our area. However, the airmass
will not have Arctic origins, in contrast to the current airmass
over our area. As a result, temperatures will be near normal on
Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in lower-mid 60s and lows in the
lower 40s. A chance of rain will also return on Wednesday as
moisture increases ahead of another upper level trough.
Aviation [through 06z friday]...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with
clear skies. Northerly winds are expected to be 10 knots or less.
Winds and seas will gradually decrease this morning and
afternoon, with small craft conditions ending early in the
morning. Small craft operators should continue to exercise caution
through the morning. Winds and seas will continue to decrease on
Friday and remain light through the weekend.
Although minimum relative humidity values will be near or below
critical levels across the region for the next couple of afternoons,
winds are not expected to be high enough for red flag conditions.
Dry conditions will persist through this weekend, with only light
to moderate rain expected next Monday. As a result, rivers will
remain well below flood stage for the next several days. Moderate
to severe drought conditions will persist across most of our area.
Spotter information statement...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting US @nwstallahassee.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 50 22 56 30 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 47 29 54 38 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 46 22 53 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 47 23 54 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 49 22 55 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 51 22 57 30 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 48 29 54 38 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Florida...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 am EST /9 am CST/ this morning for
Calhoun-central Walton-coastal Bay-coastal Dixie-coastal
Franklin-coastal Gulf-coastal Jefferson-coastal Taylor-
coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-inland Bay-inland Dixie-
inland Franklin-inland Gulf-inland Jefferson-inland Taylor-
Hard freeze warning until 8 am EST /7 am CST/ this morning for
Calhoun-central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-inland Bay-inland
Dixie-inland Franklin-inland Gulf-inland Jefferson-inland
Georgia...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 am EST this morning for Baker-Ben
Hard freeze warning until 8 am EST this morning for Baker-Ben
Alabama...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 am CST this morning for Coffee-Dale-
Hard freeze warning until 7 am CST this morning for Coffee-Dale-
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 am EST this morning for Apalachee
Bay or coastal waters from Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
River Florida out to 20 nm-coastal waters from Ochlockonee River
to Apalachicola FL out to 20 nm-coastal waters from
Suwannee River to Keaton Beach Florida out 20 nm-coastal waters
from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola Florida out 20 nm-coastal
waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County line Florida
out 20 nm-waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola Florida
from 20 to 60 nm-waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach
Florida from 20 to 60 nm-waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa
Walton County line Florida from 20 to 60 nm.