Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus62 ktae 270114 
afdtae

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
914 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Update...

Little change in the forecast for tonight and changes were mainly
limited to hourly trends. Hi-res models still show a few
showers/thunderstorms possible tomorrow morning before 12z, but
for the most part, convection should hold off until mid-morning
tomorrow.

&&

Previous discussion [731 PM edt]...

Near term [through tonight]...

Generally quiet weather is expected overnight as upper ridge
gradually breaks down ahead of trough exiting the plains. By
sunrise, could see a few thunderstorms approach southeast Alabama as the
line currently over Arkansas and eastern Texas moves southeastward.



Short term [thursday through Friday night]...

In the upper levels a trough will be over the central U.S. On
Thursday extending from Minnesota to Georgia. By Friday a ridge will build
in from the south. By Thursday morning a weak cold front will be
approaching the region bringing increased clouds, showers and
thunderstorms. This front will likely dissipate on Thursday night.
On Thursday afternoon a few thunderstorms may be strong to severe
with the weak forcing, high instability environment (cape near
2000 j/kg). Storm Prediction Center has most of the region in a marginal risk for
severe weather. Highs on Thursday will be in the low to upper 80s
(due to varying cloud cover).

On Friday southerly flow will return as the cold front dissipates
or lifts to the north. Clouds should clear out by the afternoon.
Highs on Friday will be in the upper 80s away from the immediate
coast.



Long term [saturday through wednesday]...

In the upper levels a ridge will be in place until Monday when a
trough stretches from Iowa to Georgia. By Tuesday near zonal flow will be
in place. At the surface high pressure will be in place until the
next system approaches on Sunday afternoon. Pops will begin to
increase Sunday night with the best chance of rain on Monday.
Highs will be in the 80s with lows mostly in the 60s.



Aviation [through 00z friday]...

VFR conditions initially in the tafs but IFR to MVFR conditions
are possible by 08-10z with lower clouds across the taf sites.
A few thunderstorms will be possible mid morning to the afternoon
tomorrow across the ecp, dhn and aby. Southeast to S winds will remain
elevated overnight and increase tomorrow with gusts to 25kts
expected.



Marine...

Southerly winds will increase this evening. A Small Craft Advisory
is in effect for all waters west of Apalachicola from this evening
through the overnight hours. Small craft should exercise caution
in the waters east of Apalachicola. Winds will decrease tomorrow
in the late afternoon. Southerly winds will increase again this
weekend with another Small Craft Advisory likely on Sunday.



Fire weather...

While red flag conditions are not expected over the next few days,
strong low-level winds will contribute to increasing dispersion
values across the area, especially north of I-10.



Hydrology...

Local rivers are currently low and holding steady. There will be a
good chance of rain tomorrow and again on Monday. West of the
Apalachicola/Chattahoochee River, forecast rain totals are 1.5 to
2 inches over the next seven days. Elsewhere forecast rain totals
are 0.25 to 1.5 inches over the next seven days with the lowest
amounts in eastern Big Bend Florida and south central Georgia.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 65 85 68 87 69 / 10 20 10 10 10
Panama City 71 80 72 81 71 / 10 30 10 10 10
Dothan 68 83 69 88 68 / 20 50 10 10 10
Albany 64 85 68 89 69 / 10 40 10 10 10
Valdosta 61 88 67 90 70 / 0 10 10 0 10
Cross City 62 86 66 89 69 / 0 0 10 10 10
Apalachicola 69 81 71 82 72 / 10 20 10 10 10

&&

Tae watches/warnings/advisories...

Florida...high rip current risk until 2 am EDT /1 am CDT/ Thursday for
coastal Bay-coastal Gulf-south Walton.

Georgia...none.
Alabama...none.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 am EDT Thursday for coastal waters
from Apalachicola to Destin Florida out 20 nm-waters from
Apalachicola to Destin Florida from 20 to 60 nm.



&&

$$

Update...fieux
near term...Camp
short term...McDermott
long term...McDermott

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations