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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
1046 am EDT Thursday Jul 28 2016

Update...

No major changes to the grids today. Heat will be the main story,
with temps in the upper 90s and heat indicies ranging from
102-107f. Thunderstorm coverage will remain mostly isolated today,
with the best chances along the seabreeze convergence zone between
Tallahassee and Panama City and far eastern portions of The Big
Bend.

&&

Previous discussion [228 am edt]...

Near term [through today]...

Subtropical ridge will remain in place over the southeastern
states today, with any significant forcing remaining well north
and west of the local area. Expect very warm temperatures this
afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Combined with
dewpoints in the lower 70s, this will yield heat index values up
to around 107 degrees, just short of heat advisory criteria.
Relief via afternoon convection will be limited, with only
isolated activity anticipated.



Short term [tonight through saturday]...

Deep layer ridging will be in place through the short term period,
yielding below average shower and thunderstorm chances in the
20-30% range and slightly above average afternoon high
temperatures in the mid 90s. Max heat index values are mainly
expected to be in the 103 to 107 f range.



Long term [saturday night through thursday]...

The long term period will see subtropical ridging flatten as a
broad shortwave trough traverses the Ohio Valley this weekend.
This feature will aid in gradually increasing deep layer moisture
across the region with the flow turning more onshore. An increase
in precipitable water values to near 2" is expected across much of the region by
next week, resulting in a return closer to average pops for this
time of year in the 30-40% range. Seasonal temperatures are
expected, with highs generally ranging in the lower to mid 90s and
heat indicies generally ranging from 100 to 105f.



Aviation...

[through 06z friday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast period at all terminals. Chance of impacts from
afternoon thunderstorms is very low.



Marine...

Winds will remain generally around 10 knots or less with seas of 2
feet or less through the period as high pressure dominates the
overall weather pattern.



Fire weather...

Other than elevated afternoon dispersion values, hazardous fire
weather conditions are not expected over the next several days.



Hydrology...

There are no flooding concerns for the next several days.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 96 75 95 75 96 / 20 10 20 10 30
Panama City 90 81 89 80 88 / 20 10 20 10 30
Dothan 95 74 93 74 93 / 20 10 20 10 30
Albany 97 74 96 75 96 / 10 0 20 10 30
Valdosta 96 73 96 73 95 / 20 10 20 10 30
Cross City 95 74 95 75 95 / 40 10 20 10 30
Apalachicola 91 78 91 77 91 / 10 10 20 10 30

&&

Tae watches/warnings/advisories...

Florida...none.
Georgia...none.
Alabama...none.
GM...none.

&&

$$

Update...pullin
near term...Camp
short term...dvd
long term...dvd
aviation...Camp
marine...dvd
fire weather...Camp
hydrology...dvd

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