Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
756 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Near term [through tonight]...
A 22z regional surface analysis shows high pressure centered over
southern Georgia with lower pressure to our south. An upper level
trough stretches across the Gulf of Mexico and satellite imagery
shows upper level cloud cover associated with this disturbance
across the eastern Gulf, along with some convection in the
southern Gulf. Regional radar imagery shows some showers over S
Florida and its adjacent Gulf waters. Over our area, however, all
remains rather quiet save for some ul clouds. Some patchy fog will
be possible this morning, most likely in south central Georgia.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s.
Aviation [through 00z saturday]...
Expect mostly VFR conditions across the area through the period.
Some of the guidance is still suggesting MVFR-IFR conditions may
develop in south central GA, but with no impacts at our area
terminals this morning and an even weaker signal for fog in the
guidance tonight than we had seen last night, backed off on
forecasting conditions below MVFR in this package.
Previous discussion [321 PM edt]...
Short term [tonight through saturday]...
Upper level ridging will begin to build in later on Friday and
persist into the weekend while surface high pressure over the Ohio
Valley initially on Friday slides southward. With deep layer ridging
building in, the area will remain dry and temperatures will remain
above normal. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s
inland to the low to mid 80s along the coast - this is around 10
degrees above normal. Low temperatures will be around 5 degrees
above normal with lows in the mid to upper 50s inland to lower
60s along the coast.
Long term [saturday night through thursday]...
The deep layer ridging continues into the long term with the dry
and above normal temperatures continuing into next week. One
shortwave tracks across the Great Lakes region on Sunday, but
slides north of the ridging in place across the County Warning Area. A weak
boundary from this slides southward along the eastern Seaboard
with high pressure moving in behind it. This results in increased
easterly winds. As this occurs, there is a small chance that
enough moisture could be pushed into the area for a few showers
on Wednesday, but chances are too low to mention anything above 10%
pops at this time. This appears to be the only chance of
precipitation in the long term, but again chances are low.
Winds and seas will remain elevated tonight with offshore winds
reaching cautionary levels for part of the night. Winds will
subside slightly tomorrow with winds generally 15 knots or less
and this will persist into the first half of the weekend. Winds
will weaken some Sunday into Monday as high pressure shifts closer
to the marine area. Precipitation wise, the area will remain dry.
High dispersions are expected the next couple of afternoons with
elevated transport winds over North Florida. Relative humidity values will dip into the mid
30s this weekend and low 30s early next week, but will remain above
the critical thresholds for each state for the next several days. We
are not forecasting red flag conditions for the next several days.
With a dry forecast, there are no flooding concerns over the next
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 59 86 59 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 64 82 64 82 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 57 87 58 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 58 87 57 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 59 85 58 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 60 85 59 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 64 81 64 81 65 / 0 0 0 0 0