Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
727 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016
No significant changes to the previous forecast below appear
[through 00z monday] VFR conditions with clear skies and light
winds are expected through the period.
Previous discussion [307 PM edt]...
Near term [through today]...
Pressure gradient over land area will relax this evening as high
pressure builds in from the west and thus expect wind gusts to
diminish around sunset. Tonight, the County Warning Area will be under dry northwest
flow with high pressure building in at the surface. Center of the
surface high will remain just north and west of the County Warning Area through much
of the night and thus winds may not go calm at all of the sites.
Otherwise, a good setup for radiational cooling tonight. Expect lows
mainly in the lower 40s with the mid to upper 40s along the coast.
Short term [tonight through monday]...
The deep upper level trough over our area today will move off to our
east during this period. In its place, deep layer northerly or
northwesterly flow will prevail over the southeastern conus, and
very dry air will persist over our area. As a result, there will be
no chance of precipitation through this period. Light winds will
occur during the day, becoming generally calm at night under clear
skies. This will lead to large diurnal temperature variations, with
highs warming into the lower 80s each afternoon, and inland lows
dipping down to the mid 40s to lower 50s under excellent radiational
cooling conditions. Lows will be a few degrees higher along the
coast and also in the 'urban heat island' of the city of
Long term [monday night through saturday]...
Zonal flow or a broad ridge at upper levels will occur early in
the period, with another upper level trough moving through the
southeastern Continental U.S. Near the end of the week. Moisture will return
to more typical levels for this time of year, although precipitable water values
will still struggle to exceed 1" throughout the entire period.
High pressure centered to our north is expected to prevail at the
surface, so rainfall is not anticipated through the majority of
this period. One exception could be from Thursday through Thursday
night, when moisture could increase slightly ahead of the
aforementioned trough moving through our area. Therefore, a
slight chance of showers will exist across much of our area
during this time. Temperatures will remain fairly uniform through
this period, with highs in the lower 80s and lows ranging from the
upper 50s to lower 60s.
Easterly or northeasterly winds will continue to subside tonight
through Sunday and early next week...producing seas from 2 to 3
feet tonight through Sunday and 2 feet or less Sunday night
through Tuesday. A slight chance of rain will occur during the
middle of the week along with an increase in winds...generally 15
to 20 knots from the east. Seas could become choppy from Wednesday
night into Thursday...with waves mainly from 3 to 5 feet.
Very dry air will remain in place for the next couple of days with
min relative humidity values dipping into the low to mid 20s. However, winds will
not be high enough for red flag conditions in either southeast
Alabama or southwest Georgia. For portions of northwest Florida
where winds are not required, the erc values are just 1 point short
of red flag criteria across portions of Walton, Washington, and Bay
counties in conjunction with 4 hours of below 28 percent rh, so red
flag conditions are possible there if the forecast erc values
increase for Sunday and Monday. Watches or warnings could be needed
there pending the new erc forecast.
No significant rainfall is anticipated during the next several
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 42 80 46 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 49 76 56 80 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 42 80 47 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 42 80 46 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 42 79 45 81 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 40 78 45 81 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 48 75 56 79 59 / 0 0 0 0 0