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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
127 PM EDT Thursday Jul 28 2016

Aviation [through 18z friday]...

VFR conditions with a light west/SW flow will prevail at all taf sites.
The chance for afternoon thunderstorms at the terminals is low but
thunderstorms may develop in the vicinity of tlh around 22z.

&&

Previous discussion [1046 am edt]...

Near term [through today]...

Subtropical ridge will remain in place over the southeastern
states today, with any significant forcing remaining well north
and west of the local area. Expect very warm temperatures this
afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Combined with
dewpoints in the lower 70s, this will yield heat index values up
to around 107 degrees, just short of heat advisory criteria.
Relief via afternoon convection will be limited, with only
isolated activity anticipated.



Short term [tonight through saturday]...

Deep layer ridging will be in place through the short term period,
yielding below average shower and thunderstorm chances in the
20-30% range and slightly above average afternoon high
temperatures in the mid 90s. Max heat index values are mainly
expected to be in the 103 to 107 f range.



Long term [saturday night through thursday]...

The long term period will see subtropical ridging flatten as a
broad shortwave trough traverses the Ohio Valley this weekend.
This feature will aid in gradually increasing deep layer moisture
across the region with the flow turning more onshore. An increase
in precipitable water values to near 2" is expected across much of the region by
next week, resulting in a return closer to average pops for this
time of year in the 30-40% range. Seasonal temperatures are
expected, with highs generally ranging in the lower to mid 90s and
heat indicies generally ranging from 100 to 105f.



Marine...

Winds will remain generally around 10 knots or less with seas of 2
feet or less through the period as high pressure dominates the
overall weather pattern.



Fire weather...

Other than elevated afternoon dispersion values, hazardous fire
weather conditions are not expected over the next several days.



Hydrology...

There are no flooding concerns for the next several days.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 75 95 75 96 76 / 10 20 10 30 10
Panama City 81 89 80 89 79 / 10 20 10 20 10
Dothan 74 94 74 94 74 / 10 30 10 30 10
Albany 74 96 74 96 74 / 0 10 10 30 10
Valdosta 73 95 74 96 74 / 10 10 0 30 10
Cross City 74 95 75 94 75 / 10 10 10 30 10
Apalachicola 78 90 78 90 78 / 10 10 10 30 10

&&

Tae watches/warnings/advisories...

Florida...none.
Georgia...none.
Alabama...none.
GM...none.

&&

$$

Near term...pullin
short term...Camp
Long term...dvd
aviation...pullin/Chaney
marine...Camp
fire weather...dvd
hydrology...Camp

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