Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktae 241944
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
344 PM EDT sun Sep 24 2017
Near term [through tonight]...
Storms will remain mostly offshore through the night, with a few
scattered storms in North Florida this afternoon dissipating in the
evening hours. Our special 18z sounding in support for Maria showed
increased instability- SBCAPE increased to 1800 j/kg this
afternoon and mid level lapse rates increased to 6.8 c/km. This
instability may allow a few storms to produce marginally severe hail
and wind gusts this afternoon. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s
to low 70s.
Short term [monday through Tuesday night]...
An upper level low situated near the central Gulf Coast tomorrow
morning will slide eastward and over Florida on Tuesday. This
feature, combined with enough moisture (pw values of 1.7-1.9) will
allow for the chance of showers and thunderstorms across the western
half of the County Warning Area on Monday. With the upper low shifting eastward on
Tuesday and winds becoming northerly, drier air will filter in with
precipitable water values dropping to 1.3-1.6. This will help to limit convection
and thus pops are limited to 10% or less on Tuesday. Highs will
remain around 90 with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Long term [wednesday through sunday]...
The upper low will meander in the eastern Gulf off the West Coast
of Florida with drier air (pw around 1.2) in place for the
beginning of the long term. This will allow for a dry forecast and
do not have mentionable pops in the grids for Wednesday and
Thursday. A weak front late in the week/into the weekend will
allow for the return of 20-30% pops, but overall rain chances are
still on the lower side with the front. While temperatures for
the beginning of the long term will climb into the low 90s, highs
for the weekend are expected to drop into the low to mid 80s. Lows
in the lower 70s will drop into the 60s for Sunday and Monday
Aviation [through 18z monday]...
Scattered offshore and nearshore storms may impact ecp this
afternoon and gusty winds (15-20 kts) will also be possible near
ecp, as well as near dhn and aby. Otherwise, expect VFR vsbys and
cigs through the period with with from the east.
East winds around 10 knots tonight will decrease to 5 to 10 knots
by Monday afternoon with winds 10 knots or less through mid week.
By the weekend, winds and seas will increase. While scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected across the western waters
again Monday, chances will decrease for mid week.
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.
Overall rainfall amounts through Monday will be limited to around
0.25 inches or less and these low amounts will not cause any
flooding issues. Much of the rest of the week will remain dry.
Spotter information statement...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting US @nwstallahassee.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 70 88 69 91 71 / 10 10 0 0 0
Panama City 73 87 73 88 74 / 10 30 10 10 0
Dothan 68 88 67 91 69 / 0 20 0 0 0
Albany 69 90 67 91 70 / 0 10 0 0 0
Valdosta 68 88 67 89 70 / 0 10 0 0 0
Cross City 70 89 70 89 71 / 10 10 0 0 0
Apalachicola 73 86 73 88 74 / 20 20 10 10 0