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fxus62 ktae 260803 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
303 am EST sun Feb 26 2017

Near term [through today]...

A cold front that pushed through the County Warning Area yesterday/last night was
stretched across the Florida Peninsula this morning. Drier air has
filtered into the area behind the front. Based on current dew point
trends, have nudged dew points down a few degrees today, especially
across the north. In addition, the cooler air has been a bit slower
than expected so have increased lows this morning a few degrees,
mainly across the eastern portion of the County Warning Area.

High pressure will dominate today allowing for clear, dry conditions
across the County Warning Area. High temperatures will be noticeably cooler than
yesterday with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s, more normal for
late February. Overall, it should be a pleasant day.

Short term [tonight through tuesday]...

The dry and cool airmass will remain in place across our area
tonight, but it will be short-lived as an upper level ridge
replaces zonal flow aloft, and southerly flow develops on the
western edge of high pressure at the surface from Monday through
Tuesday. This will bring humid and increasingly warm conditions
back to our area, with highs in the mid-upper 70s Monday and
mainly lower 80s Tuesday, along with dewpoints rising into the
lower-mid 60s. Forcing will be weak aside from some isentropic
lift on Monday afternoon/early evening, along with mediocre
instability (a few hundred j/kg of cape). This will result in
slight to low-end chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms,
mainly across southeast Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle, and parts of
SW Georgia. Otherwise, most of our area will remain dry through
the majority of this period.

Long term [tuesday night through sunday]...

Unseasonably warm conditions (highs reaching the low-mid 80s)
will persist through Wednesday as an upper level ridge continues
to build across the eastern Continental U.S. And southerly flow continues
over our area. The best chances for precipitation will come
overnight Wednesday through Thursday morning as a cold front moves
across our area; modest instability will lead to a chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms across our area.


Aviation [through 06z monday]...

VFR conditions are expected through the taf period. Northwest to north-northwest winds
this morning will become easterly by mid morning.



Winds and seas will remain elevated today through tonight, with
easterly winds from 15 to 20 knots today becoming southeasterly
tonight. Winds could slightly exceed 20 knots tonight, so a Small
Craft Advisory may be needed but will hold off on an advisory for
now. Winds will decrease slightly on Monday, and generally remain
at 10 to 15 knots from the southeast or south through Wednesday. A
cold front will result in increasing winds and seas on Wednesday
night and Thursday.


Fire weather...

Dry air has filtered into the area behind the front that moved
through yesterday. Relative humidity values will drop into the upper teens to lower
20 percent range this afternoon, however winds and fuels will not
reach critical levels. Moisture will increase for first half of the



The Choctawhatchee River is currently cresting in action stage
near Caryville and will rise through action stage near Bruce
during the next couple days. However, it is projected to remain
below flood stage at Bruce as well. There will be a few chances of
showers and isolated thunderstorms during early to middle
portions of the week, but no widespread heavy rain is anticipated.
Therefore, no flooding is expected for the next several days.


Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 72 46 77 59 82 / 0 0 10 10 10
Panama City 67 55 72 63 75 / 0 0 20 10 10
Dothan 66 46 74 60 80 / 0 0 30 20 10
Albany 67 44 76 58 81 / 0 0 20 10 10
Valdosta 70 46 79 59 83 / 0 0 30 20 10
Cross City 74 47 81 59 82 / 0 0 10 10 0
Apalachicola 68 56 73 63 76 / 0 0 10 10 0


Tae watches/warnings/advisories...




Near term...fieux
short term...lahr
long term...lahr

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