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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
723 PM EDT sun Apr 23 2017

Aviation [through 00z tuesday]...

A broken line of showers and a couple thunderstorms will continue
to impact aby and tlh for the next hour or so, and then vld
through about 04z. Starting late tonight, a deck of MVFR ceilings
will spread from west to east through the region. MVFR is not
expected to clear terminals until around 18z or later tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

Previous discussion [351 PM edt]...

Near term [through tonight]...

Cold front stretches from Panama City northward to near Dothan and
further northward to western Georgia. Showers and storms are
accompanying the front as it moves eastward. Decent cape, moisture,
and slightly increasing shear should keep the precipitation going as
the entire system moves eastward. The lines of precipitation is
relatively thin so expect brief downpours and sporadic lightning but
overall amount will remain on the lighter side...generally one half
inch and below. Timing of the line into Albany and Tallahassee will
be closer to dusk and in Valdosta this evening. There remains at
least a marginal risk of severe storms ahead of the front with a
slight risk across most of SW Georgia with wind being the main
threat.

Once the line of rain and the cold front moves through, winds will
turn northwesterly with clouds hanging around most of the night. Low
will fall to the low 50s across southeast Alabama and western Florida
Panhandle to upper 50s to around 60 degrees across the Florida Big
Bend counties.



Short term [monday through Tuesday night]...

In the upper levels a closed low will be over Georgia on Monday. By
Tuesday night ridging will be in place. At the surface a low will
be off the coast of South Carolina on Monday. The wrap around
moisture will linger through Monday afternoon in northeastern
parts of the region. There will be a slight chance for a shower on
Monday morning in far eastern parts of the region. Otherwise pops
will be near zero. Most if not all of the cloud cover will clear
out by Monday evening. Temps will be cooler with highs in the mid
70s on Monday and lower 80s on Tuesday. Lows will be in the 50s.



Long term [wednesday through sunday]...

In the upper levels a trough will be in place until a ridge builds
in by Friday. At the surface a weak pressure gradient will be in
place. There will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms
on Thursday, Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Highs will be in the
mid to upper 80s. Lows will be in the 60s.



Marine...

Winds will increase and become northwesterly this evening as a
cold front passes. 15 to 20 knot winds are likely through tomorrow
evening. A few hours of 20 knot winds are possible tomorrow
afternoon mainly in the offshore waters. Light to moderate winds
are expected for the rest of the week.



Fire weather...

Relative humidity levels are not expected to fall below critical
thresholds over the next several days. Thus, red flag conditions
are not expected.



Hydrology...

River levels are currently steady. There is a good chance for rain
today as a cold front approaches. Rain totals will likely be under
one inch. Otherwise there is only a slight chance for rain late
next week. No flooding concerns.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...

Tallahassee 56 77 55 84 59 / 40 0 0 0 0
Panama City 58 75 61 78 65 / 10 0 0 0 0
Dothan 53 75 55 83 59 / 10 0 0 0 0
Albany 55 74 55 82 59 / 30 10 0 0 0
Valdosta 58 75 54 83 59 / 60 10 0 0 0
Cross City 61 76 56 82 59 / 40 10 0 0 0
Apalachicola 59 75 60 79 64 / 20 0 0 0 0

&&

Tae watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Georgia...none.
Alabama...none.
GM...none.
&&

$$

Near term...scholl
short term...McDermott
long term...McDermott

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