Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
723 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016
Aviation [through 00z sunday]...
VFR conditions expected through the period. Northwest winds continue to
gradually decrease across the area as the sun sets, with all taf
sites likely falling below 10 kts in the next hour or two.
Previous discussion [350 PM edt]...
Near term [through tonight]...
Sunny skies will prevail behind a cold front this afternoon. Highs
will peak in the low to mid 80s from Apalachicola through Valdosta
and locations southeast. To the northwest, highs will likely reach
the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. Overnight, weak cold air advection
will bring temperatures down into mostly the upper 40s, scattered
middle 40 readings may be possible as well.
Short term [saturday through Sunday night]...
In the upper levels, a deep trough will remain over the eastern
Seaboard on Saturday and slowly move out to sea by Sunday. An upper
level ridge will remain over the Great Plains. At the surface, high
pressure will remain over the southeast U.S. Throughout the forecast
period. Expect clear skies and pops near zero. Cool, dry air will
remain in place and highs will be in the mid 70s on Saturday and
upper 70s on Sunday. Lows will be in the 40s.
Long term [monday through friday]...
High pressure begins to build across the mid-Atlantic states
allowing deep layer ridging to dominate for the first half of the
week. On Thursday, a deep trough may lead to an increase in rain
chances. However, the dry air mass over land seems to keep precip
offshore but it is too far out to be certain. The colder temps over
the weekend begin to warm up due to easterly flow from the sfc high
increasing the cloud cover over the region. Expect temps to return
to climo with highs in low to mid 80s and lows in the 50s.
Advisory conditions are expected tonight. Strong northerly winds
will continue until Saturday afternoon. Then expect moderate winds
through Sunday afternoon when winds will become light.
Dry air will be in place across the region Saturday, yielding relative humidity
values below critical thresholds region wide. Rh's in the low to mid
20s are expected Saturday afternoon, with high dispersion values
expected across the entire region. However, winds are expected to be
weaker, peaking around 10 mph from the north with erc values
currently forecast to remain below the critical threshold to meet
red flag criteria for duration.
Dry weather will continue for the next week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 49 75 45 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 54 74 52 76 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 46 74 43 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 47 74 43 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 47 73 44 77 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 48 75 43 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 53 74 52 75 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 am EDT Saturday for Apalachee Bay
or coastal waters from Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL
out to 20 nm-coastal waters from Ochlockonee River to
Apalachicola FL out to 20 nm-coastal waters from Suwannee
River to Keaton Beach out 20 nm-coastal waters from
Apalachicola to Destin Florida out 20 nm-waters from Suwannee
River to Apalachicola Florida from 20 to 60 nm-waters from
Apalachicola to Destin Florida from 20 to 60 nm.