Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktae 280045
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
845 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017
Convection has been on a decreasing trend with the loss of daytime
heating and mainly just showers across the County Warning Area this evening. Based
on radar trends though, did increase pops across the southeast
Big Bend area for the first half of the night to better account
for current conditions. Will continue to see a decrease in
precipitation though over the next few hours.
Previous discussion [711 PM edt]...
Near term [through tonight]...
the stalled front lies just south of our forecast area. Daytime
heating on the "dry" side of the front over our area has initialized
a light seabreeze as can be seen in the surface observations and
radar imagery. The inland extension of the seabreeze will be
moderated by drier air and northerly winds- chances for showers and
thunderstorms decrease sharply when you move north of a line from
Valdosta to Panama City. Temperatures are generally about where
they'll peak today- in the mid to upper 80s. Scattered convection is
expected to dissipate shortly after sunset. Overnight lows will be
around 70, slightly warmer along the immediate coastline.
Short term [wednesday through Thursday night]...
a weak disturbance over the western Gulf of Mexico will slowly
begin to move northeastward toward our region on Wednesday around
the northwestern edge of the subtropical ridge. This will lead to
a further increase in moisture and an small increase in rain
chances on Wednesday. Still expect coverage to be greatest,
however in the Southeast Florida Big Bend where convergence with
The Big Bend sea breeze will be maximized with the east-southeast low level
By Thursday, most of the model guidance has the weak disturbance
moving northeastward across southern Alabama and into middle
Georgia. Expect a fairly early start to convection before sunrise
across the coastal waters off the Florida Panhandle. In fact, some
of this convective activity could limit destabilization later in
the afternoon across southeast Alabama. As a result, haven't
shown a significant increase in pops in the western half of the
region, however, did increase pops into the likely category across
southwestern Georgia. Expect with plenty of convection on Thursday
that afternoon temperatures will be held back into the mid 80s,
and perhaps even into the low 80s in the western half of the
Long term [friday through tuesday]...
weak synoptic forcing will provide a fairly stagnant pattern through
the forecast period with ridging over the southeast US and weak
southerly surface winds. Typical afternoon summertime
thunderstorms with pops around 40-50% through the weekend for the
area are anticipated. Into next week the location of the ridge
remains a little uncertain, and associated subsidence might
slightly suppress convection. Pops on Tuesday are generally a
little lower around 30-40% as a result. High temperatures will be
in the upper 80s through the weekend, gradually shifting to lower
90s into next week, while low temperatures will remain in the
lower to mid 70s.
Aviation [through 00z thursday]...
Ongoing rain showers and thunderstorms and rain will diminish over the next several hours,
giving way to VFR conditions at all taf sites. Overnight, IFR to
potentially LIFR cigs and vsbys are likely at vld once again with
conditions quickly improving to VFR after sunrise. Expect similar
conditions during the day tomorrow, with rain showers and thunderstorms and rain increasing
in coverage after 17z and slowly diminishing after 00z tomorrow
winds and seas will be at generally low summertime levels through
the next several days. Chances of showers and thunderstorms are
expected each day.
hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected as rh's will
remain above critical thresholds through the remainder of the week.
Chances for wetting rains will exist each afternoon through at least
the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce will crest on Wednesday just
below flood stage. All other Rives are well below flood stage.
Over the next couple of days, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected, especially in the afternoon and
evening. Localized rainfall amounts could briefly cause some minor
flooding in urbanized areas, however, no significant flooding is
anticipated through the next few days.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 71 89 73 88 73 / 20 40 30 50 20
Panama City 74 86 75 84 76 / 20 40 30 50 10
Dothan 69 89 72 83 72 / 0 30 30 50 20
Albany 70 90 72 86 73 / 0 20 20 60 30
Valdosta 69 90 72 89 72 / 30 40 30 60 30
Cross City 70 90 72 90 73 / 40 70 40 50 30
Apalachicola 74 86 76 85 76 / 20 50 30 40 10