Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktae 181613
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
1113 am EST Sat Nov 18 2017
Near term [through today]...
areas of morning fog have just about burned off, yielding mostly
sunny skies across the forecast area. Clouds, and possible a few
showers, will move into the western portion of the region during
the afternoon as a cold front rapidly approaches. Otherwise, mild
conditions are expected, with highs in the upper 70s.
Previous discussion [636 am est]...
Short term [tonight through monday]...
The cold front will sweep through the tri-state region overnight.
The front is expected to be preceded with a broken narrow line of
light rain or showers. Rainfall amounts will generally be under one-
tenth of an inch. A cooler and much drier airmass will filter in on
low level northerly flow Sunday with the surface high centered over
Texas. This high will translate east-northeastward covering the southeast
Continental U.S. On Monday with local winds shifting to the east by the
afternoon. Highs both days will mostly be in the lower to mid 60s
with a low Sunday night in the mid to upper 30s inland and around
40 along the coast.
Long term [monday night through saturday]...
While there are still some differences between the Euro and GFS,
there is a general agreement that a deep trough and surface low will
develop mid to late week across the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS solution
is now the more aggressive closing off an upper low Wednesday near
the central Gulf Coast and sliding it eastward into the Florida
Panhandle Thursday. A deep surface low develops and does a loop
across our local waters Wednesday night through Thursday night
before moving inland near the Suwannee River entrance Friday. The
Euro drops a short wave all the way to the Bay of Campeche
Wednesday before before pivoting an upper trough eastward across
the Gulf of Mexico Thursday through Friday. This solution shows a
weaker surface low developing in the southeast Gulf of Mexico Thursday
moving inland across South Florida on Friday. Would like to see
more run to run consistency but for now will lean toward the
wetter GFS solution. The highest pops (50-60%) will be across the
Florida Big Bend Wednesday night through Thursday night. Low end
rain chances (20-30%) may linger into Friday before drying out on
Saturday. Temps will be near seasonal levels Tuesday and
Wednesday dropping below climo through the remainder of the
[through 12z sunday] patchy fog at vld and near aby and tlh this
morning is expected to dissipate by 14z with VFR conditions
prevailing for the remainder of the day. Gusty south to southwest
winds are expected to develop this afternoon across most of the
area ahead of an approaching cold with the breeziest conditions
expected at dhn. For late tonight, the cold front will move
rapidly through the area with a thin line of showers along it.
Winds will continue gusty and become northwest behind the front
with gusts around 20 knots across the area.
Light to moderate southwest winds today will increase to advisory
levels late tonight or early Sunday as a strong cold front
approaches and moves through the local waters. Winds and seas will
remain elevated through Sunday night before dropping below
cautionary levels on Monday.
A cold front will move through the area late tonight with breezy
conditions and a dry airmass behind it for Sunday. However, relative humidity
values are expected to remain above critical levels and red flag
conditions are not expected for the next several days.
Dry conditions will continue today. Rainfall associated with the
next frontal system late tonight into Sunday morning will be
light with no flooding concerns. A Gulf low next week has the
potential to bring heavy rain to our Florida counties toward the
end of the week, but recent dry weather should mitigate and
flooding concerns then as well.
Spotter information statement...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting US @nwstallahassee.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 77 55 66 37 67 / 0 40 10 0 0
Panama City 75 55 65 41 65 / 20 40 10 0 0
Dothan 78 49 63 34 64 / 10 40 0 0 0
Albany 78 51 62 35 64 / 0 40 0 0 0
Valdosta 76 55 65 36 66 / 0 40 20 0 0
Cross City 77 58 71 36 70 / 0 30 30 0 0
Apalachicola 75 57 68 41 65 / 10 40 10 0 0
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Sunday
for Apalachee Bay or coastal waters from Keaton Beach to
Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 nm-coastal waters from
Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 nm-coastal
waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 nm-
coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin Florida out 20 nm-
waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola Florida from 20 to 60
nm-waters from Apalachicola to Destin Florida from 20 to 60 nm.