Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
243 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016
Near term [through today]...
broad high pressure ridging will be situated across the tri-state
region with mid level height center across western Texas and surface
high pressure situated across the Carolinas. This will keep our area
high and dry tonight with light easterly winds. Some patchy fog will
be possible around the area overnight but high clouds should keep
the aerial coverage low. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 50s
with near to lower 60s at the coast.
Short term [tonight through sunday]...
deep-layer ridge will dominate the pattern over the deep south
through the weekend, with the main band of westerlies confined
well to the north. This will keep the weather dry and warm through
early Monday. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 80s
Saturday and Sunday afternoon, close to record territory. The
record high temperatures for Tallahassee are 89 degrees on
Saturday and 88 degrees on Sunday.
Long term [sunday night through friday]...
upper level ridging and a dry air mass will be over the region
suppressing any chance for rainfall for much of the upcoming work
week. On Friday, an upper level low will dip southward toward the
County Warning Area increasing rain chances mostly over Georgia and north central
Florida. Highs will mostly be above climo in the mid to upper 80s but may
decrease at the end of the week. Lows will be in the upper 50s to
Aviation [through 18z saturday] VFR for the rest of the
afternoon and evening across all taf sites with light east winds.
Overnight, some patchy fog is possible with MVFR vsbys but high
clouds should limit areal coverage and lower vsbys. Flight conds
will be back to VFR by mid morning Saturday.
moderate east to northeast winds will continue through Saturday as
high pressure remains in place to the north. Winds and seas will
diminish on Sunday into early next week as high pressure builds
directly over the waters.
the area will see elevated 20 ft winds and dispersions on Saturday
and fuel moisture remains extremely low. Relative humidity values
will remain above critical thresholds. No red flag conditions are
expected for the next several days.
no signicant precipitation is expected though at least the middle
of next week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 59 87 61 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 65 83 65 82 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 57 88 59 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 56 88 58 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 58 86 59 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 60 86 62 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 64 81 66 81 66 / 0 0 0 0 0