Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
721 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016
The current forecast is on track and no updates are planned for
Previous discussion [714 PM edt]...
Near term [through tonight]...
an upper level trough over the mid-Atlantic region will move
offshore tonight, with a ridge starting to build over the
southeastern Continental U.S.. dry air will remain entrenched over our area,
with precipitable water values less than 0.7" expected through tonight. At the
surface, a weak cold front will slide southward across our area
tonight, but with ample dry air in place no precipitation is
expected. With scattered high clouds in place, radiational cooling
will be less efficient than the last few nights, so low
temperatures should be several degrees warmer across our area.
Expect lows in the lower 50s inland, and mid 50s to near 60 along
the Gulf Coast.
Short term [tuesday through Wednesday night]...
relatively benign weather will continue across the local area
through Wednesday as the main belt of upper westerlies (and the
associated dynamics) remain well to the north of the area. At the
surface, high pressure will nose down the eastern Seaboard,
increasing easterly flow by late Tuesday. However, no
precipitation is expected. Seasonably warm temperatures are
expected, with highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the lower
Long term [thursday through monday]...
warm and dry weather is expected to continue through the upcoming
weekend. A front will approach the region on Thursday, but stall
and dissipate west of the area as the upper support quickly lifts
out to the northeast. Temperatures by this weekend will be well
above normal, with highs pushing into the upper 80s by Saturday.
Aviation [through 00z wednesday]...
VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period with
variable high clouds at or above 25kft and easterly winds generally below
light winds will increase out of the east by mid-week as high
pressure builds north of the area. Conditions may reach exercise
caution levels by early Wednesday, continuing through Thursday.
a dry airmass will give way to a modest increase in moisture by
midweek with rh's gradually increasing from the low to mid 20s
being observed across the region this afternoon to the mid 30s to
low 40s by Wednesday. Despite the forecast improvement in
conditions, Tuesday afternoon will again pose a marginal threat
for red flag conditions, due to lows rhs and marginally high erc
values during the afternoon hours across mainly Washington,
Walton, and Bay counties. Otherwise, no fire weather threats are
no significant rain is expected this week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Tallahassee 51 84 59 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 10
Panama City 59 81 63 80 66 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dothan 52 85 56 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 10
Albany 51 84 55 82 60 / 0 0 0 0 10
Valdosta 50 83 57 82 60 / 0 0 0 0 10
Cross City 50 82 60 83 61 / 0 0 0 10 10
Apalachicola 58 79 65 79 67 / 0 0 0 10 10